Toney is not a natural HW, least we forget. He is a make-shift heavyweight in a poor era and he hasn't done a very good job of being one. Foreman has massive advantages in size, power, strength and presence. He can take whatever Toney throws at him. He can cut down the ring and put Toney on the ropes, and when he does, Toney isn't getting away.
He would not be able to keep Foreman off him no matter what punch he's throwing. He is not a noted power puncher anyway let alone at HW. And he cannot, no matter what you seem to think, take Foreman's shots like Ali did.
Nothing to do with Toney getting worn out, it's to do with getting knocked out. Durable HW's were getting punished by Foreman. [ame]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d2KRcH1N-xY[/ame] Skip to about 8:10 and watch until the stoppage. Foreman's punches may be loaded up to hell in that sequence, and Toney will see them coming and try to counter, but he will be getting bullied backwards and his shots will be walked through, eventually Foreman is going to smother him and unload. Now you tell me Toney could take those punches. Not to mention Foreman won't have to load up on his punches to that extent against Toney, because even an ATG chin like Toney's doesn't translate to an ATG chin like Chuvalo's at HW.
Unless Toney tires him out "taking a beating until Foreman gasses" he gets beat up and loses I voted stoppage
The problem is, Toney would still be on the ropes and therefore within range of Foreman and unable to escape. Whether that be because he goes to the ropes himself or he gets bullied there, it doesn't matter. Once he's there, Foreman isn't going to let him go. He has a great defence no doubt, but even if he's moving his head, his body is still there to be hit. Even if he's employing the philly-shell, Foreman is going to punch right through his guard. Foreman did not have pretty punching technique, but he had absolute strength and absolute raw out power, as you obviously know and as is witnessed in that video. I can't for the life of me envision any guy who isn't a legitimate 230lb super-heavyweight with durability or a natural HW with an insane chin like Chuvalo sitting on the ropes like that and holding there own, defence or no defence. The body is a big problem area for me, I don't see Toney being able to defend his body even if he can move his head and guard it relatively well.
Style wise Toney whips Foreman's ass and would embarrass him. Jimmy Young made Foreman look stupid and so did Ali. The big question would be could Toney take what Foreman threw at him which is a big if because no matter how great Toney's chin is taking shots from Foreman takes a whole different level of punch resistance. If Toney can take the few shots that Foreman can get on him he schools him and probably shops him late. If Toney cant he'll get stopped around the 5th. IMO as a Toney fan(I am slightly bias) I think the Toney that fought Holyfield would be able to whoop Foreman ass with out taking many shots and even when he would take a shot even if he was hurt by it Toney was good at never showing it. Toney UD or Late stoppage(11th or 12th).
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My mistake, sorry. Still, it's going to be punched through by a guy with Foreman's natural power. 3lb weight advatange, yes. But Toney has never naturally grown into the weight, he's still a make-shift heavyweight who had no business going to such heights in the first place. Foreman has a massive advantage in power and strength, that you cannot deny, surely? For what it's worth aswell, he obviously has inches height, reach and frame dimensions I'm sure. Does Toney make it to round 4 though? That's the whole point? What is to stop him getting blasted out early? We seem to be talking too much about Toney wearing Foreman down and his punches losing there verocity and not enough about how he copes with being hit to the body by one of the heaviest punchers of all-time while being a small, un-natural HW. We can agree there, Ali does not hit to the body - in fact the only time I can remember him doing so was the Cleveland Williams fight when he looked his most complete - so yes Toney hits to the body more often. Will those punches take there toll? They should do, but Foreman has great punch resistance for a HW, and Toney doesn't hit that hard for a non-HW. You add in that natural weight-range disparity and they are even less effective. The second point I have to disagree with you on I'm afraid. I do see Toney getting steam-rolled, maybe not the first round, but within the first 3 certainly. As good a chin as he has, he's been hurt as HW before - even Matthew Greer had him rocked albeit this isn't a prime Toney, his chin shouldn't have declined that badly. Even if it was marginally better, Foreman is obviously no Matthew Greer. I just don't see him being able to impose himself on this fight. There is no doubt Toney is far more skilled and a smarter fighter than George is, but '74 Foreman was a formidable wrecking-ball of a fighter. I don't see anybody that under-sized being able to impose themselves and wear him down and sit on the ropes and take his punches. And I know you are making a big point out of his defence, but Foreman is going to be throwing leather in abundance, and not every one is going to miss. Even half-landing punches are going to take their toll on Toney. I would like to point out, if we are talking '90's Foreman it's a different matter. Toney would be able to impose himself because George was not nearly as aggressive, relying behind improved boxing skills, a better jab and an improved defence may have made him a better all-round fighter, but he was not an ounce the machine he was in his prime.