I don't think Pavlik will win this year (he was f'n outright robbed in 2007) based on the opponents he's fighting. Yeah he beat Taylor in a close rematch, but Lockett was a nobody and chances are he's not gonna fight Abraham this year. I think its gonna come down to Cotto or Pacquaio if they both win out. I'm leaning towards Cotto if he can beat AM because that is the most meaningful fight in boxing IMO. The best two guys fighting in the best div. in the sport.
Mijares if he convincingly beats Montiel and Donaire. That would be huge. That would make him the biggest star in the sub bantamweight ranks since Johnny Tapia or Michael Carbajal.
The way I see it, these are the top contenders based on reasonable scenarios (if all these things happened, this is how my voting would go): 1) Campbell - beat Diaz, Guzman, Casamayor/JMM winner 2) Margarito - beat Cintron, Cotto, another top WW (Mosley, Clottey rematch, etc.) 3) Molitor - beat Castillo, Beltran, Caballero, Vasquez 4) Mijares - beat Navarro, Munoz, creampuff, Montiel 5) Casamayor - beat Katsidis, JMM, Campbell/Guzman winner (yes, Diaz is that much of a better win than Katsidis) 6) Pavlik - beat Taylor, Lockett, Another B- leveller, Abraham 7) Pacquiao - beat JMM, Diaz, Valero Obviously, Pac is in the best position to actually pull off the scenario, but there are plenty of other reasonable scenarios that I'd place ahead of it. IMHO, no matter what Cotto or Calzaghe does from this point on could net them fighter of the year, without Valero upsetting Pac. If Mijares beats both Donaire and Montiel this year, then he's a no-brainer for fighter of the year, but I doubt there's enough time left in the year to pull off both fights, unless one of them agrees to fight him in his August date (VERY unlikely - champs won't usually fight on short notice).
these are the serious contenders for now... Pacquiao Campbell Casamayor Cotto Margie Pavlik Calzaghe Haye Wlad Peter It all depends on if they win, who and how in the next one or two fights
Cotto-Mosley was in 2007 and shouldn't count towards this year. All Cotto has done this year is beat a C-level fighter in Gomez. Granted, he destroyed Gomez, but I can name 100 fighters who are more deserving of FOY so far than Cotto. This coming from someone who thought Cotto was FOY last year.
IMO it would definitely come down to either Cotto or Pacquiao. It would be hard not to give it to Cotto after winning against 2 big name fighters in Margarito and ODH however Pacquiao is viewed by most as the P4P best. A 3-0 year with a win over JMM and 2 victories and a title at yet another weight class may very well be too hard to ignore. I suppose id give it to Pac when it comes down to it.
too early to call a foty debate but by the way things are going my most likely 3 contenders are pac, mijares, cotto(if cotto fights again this year after margo)