Semi serious. If Dawson were to pump his jab and could use his reach for a 1-2 then pivot to his right with the hook over and over, he could steal enough rounds to make it close. He coasts through fights admiring his work though and im probably seeing him as being capable of something he isnt. youre right Ward has all the tools to do it 120-108 but lets not forget lesser fighters than Dawson have taken rounds off ward. Il go Dawson to take some early rounds, Ward to start to measure around 4, 5, 6 then outwork a static Dawson through to 12. Pretty obvious call I know.
I think saying Ward would out-work and shut down Dawson is pretty accurate, and not simply saying "he'll work a bit harder". Ward works fairly consistently, but his real gift is stopping the other guy throwing. He controls distance very well and Dawson, regardless of how he admires his work, has always been prone to guys jumping in on him. Chad likes to work at his optimal distance, but he's never really shown the capacity to control it against even guys like Pascal. Now, I like Jean and think he's fun to watch, but he's only got two modes: fast, sloppy flurries and hard singles as he tires. But he constantly took the distance from Chad, just by being first. Ward is excellent at being first and making sure he's out of position to take much back. So, while I think Dawson's handspeed and combination punching will make the first few rounds competitive, I can't see him maintaining it over 12. Unless he gets through and tags Ward's shaky chin.
If making the weight has not affected Dawson, he will win this fight. I think the second half of the fight, will be where Dawson starts to make a imprint.