11 reasons Hopkins' chances are good.

1 - Enzo Calzaghe. Enzo is a smart tactitian. He is also exactly the right man to handle Joe. In Wales. Now he is handling him in Vegas. According to Boxing Monthly, Calzaghe has been talking to Hatton and Hatton's people, and certain adjustments have been made - where they will stay, awareness conerning the air conditioning etc. But Enzo is still, essentially, is an old fashioned man who perhaps doesn't have the patience assoicated with a modern camp boss (think Roach) and he is working in America for the first time. Can he control the camp in the same way? Will he be able to put his hands on the things he needs in the same way as back home? Will he be able to work patiently and properly with the people who may be working against him in these matters for the Hopkins camp? You rarely hear of a camp going badly before a fight. We may hear that the camp didn't go as well as it could have after.

2 - The Weight. Peope have tried to take the Hopkins win over Tarver and it's a disgrace. They say that Tarver looked terrible against Hopkins and anyone could have beaten him. This, despite the fact that he looked great beating Jones 8 months previous and just fine destroying Woods at the weekend. Hopkins is proven at the weight. Joe is not. Now in my opinion Joe will be just as good at 175 as he would have been at 168. He might even be better - he says he will be better - but if one of the miriad of things that can go wrong at a new weight at his age does go wrong, this can become a serious factor.

3 - Hopkins is under Calzaghe's skin. This has never happened before - he's been bossed at the various press conferences and religios about running down Bernard in one on one's in the press. I also feel he is concerned about an assualt on his person by Hopkins a la Winky. How will this affect the fight plans?

4 - The Hopkins fight plan. What is Hopkins fight plan? Well, we don't know. So far, all that has come out of the Hopkins camp is bull****. Freddy Roach: "We are going for the knockout." Well, not they're not. Hopkins can't KO Calzaghe. Furthermore, Hopkins: "That is what [the result of the fight] comes down to. Who can change the other guys style and take him out of his comfort zone." No. Calzaghe proved against Kessler that he can change in the face of what he is experiencing and bring out a plan B every bit as good as his plan A. Calzaghe's comfort zone is better and wider than Hopkins indicates here. But Hopkins knows this. His plan B and C will be crucial. Given that he is the best tactitian and general in the game they may be THE crucial factor. In fact, given that Joe is probably the second best general in the world, whatever difference exsists may be the thing that decides the result.

5 - The Calzaghe fight plan - can he be draw out of it if it is working? Hopkins is an expert spoiler and a difficult man to share the ring with. If Calzaghe is winning with his original fight plan Hopkins will turn to the dark arts. Remeber Calzaghe against Bika? He was made terribley uncomfortable by such tactics AT HOME against a fighter who, compared to Hopkins, is limited. This will be the final test for Calzaghe. If he can solve this, he can solve Bernard. If he gets drawn into Hopkins world - SD The Executioner.

6 - Calzaghe's hands and punching technique. Calzaghe: "My left hand is sore to the touch now. I have to make adjustments for that." Duke Mackenzie: "I'm going for Hopkins...over here, Joe gets away with plenty, in American I beleive his percieved slapping could result in point deductions causing Calzaghe to panic and become an out of control windmill." Remember: Joe fights outside the rules of the sport when he slaps. Referees and judges may not like it.

7 - "Hopkins has a great record against southpaws." He does indeed. 11-0. In my opinion because:

8 - "Hopkins is great at taking away his opponents best weapon." This is the crux, and he will show it again. However, I don't agree that this is Joe's speed, or even his workrate. It's his composite awkwardness. Joe is very very hard to box. Hopkins will solve this issue in the same way he always does v Southpaws - with footwork and balance.

9 - Joe Calzaghe: "I beat people with speed." He does indeed. Now for the newsflash: Joe has slowed down. How much? Not much. But what if he has slowed again, say, by the same amount as he did between Lacey and Kessler? SD, Hopkins.

10 - The punch that Calzaghe is most vulnerable to is Hopkins' best. The coutner right hand down the pipe.

11 - Hopkins is one of the best counterpunchers to have ever breathed. I believe this. I also beleive that Joe's jab is counterable. He has a good jab, but he loads up behind it and is often vulnerable for a split second in between. I've seen it. So Hopkins has seen it. Vulnerable. Also, when he gets hit, he often draws defence from offecne, throwing a grouping of shots that often don't have a lot on them. Vulnerable. Hopkins: "He comes exactly as I want him to come. Straight forward and busy."

Having said all this, I favour Calzaghe

But some people overstate the case. I bet my card will read something like 8-4 or 7-5, but if some of the above goes Hopkins way - and there's a good chance it will - and if Hopkins scores a flash KD in round three and Calzaghe panics a bit, don't be surprised to see a judges scorecard read quite differently. And if two of them end up reading for still the Ring's light-heavyweight champion of the world, don't be to surprised.

 

Hard to know what to make of this. Keep on dreaming that Joe will win or that Bernard has a chance?

 

:good

 

Well it did become touch and go!! But if you look at my list a lot of these things are "what if's". What if Joe's camp doesn't go so well, what if he has slowed down etc. The odds don't favour all of these factors making play. Joe still has better stamina and workrate, better speed and the things he is behind in - punching technique for example - either don't matter to much or are very slender leads. The only area Bernard is ahead by a serious amount is smarts, and Calzaghe is very smart. So we're looking to intangibles. We'll see.

A good point.

 

Joe won't throw anything like as many punches as this in this fight. If he tries I expect him to be stopped.