11 reasons Hopkins' chances are good.

My bet: Hopkins SD

 

That was a great first post. It was unbiased and easy to read... not exactly things that happen often on this board.

I think the key for Hopkins is whether he can prevent Calzaghe from firing off his usual workrate. Hopkins is great at counterpunching but Calzaghe has an awkward style. Many people call it slapping but it's tricky because he doesn't slap all the time. Between several 'slaps', he'll throw a hard punch, which almost freezes you from freely counter-punching his slaps.

 

This match will be a draw

 

I am under a lot of tension and it's not going to get any better until saturday night. The main reason this is happening to me is because they are talking too much for whatever reason, maybe to promote the fight, maybe to convince themselves that they have the edge, I don't know exactly why... But it is disturbing me. These last arguments Hopkins came up with seem very unreasonable. Hopkins was himself impressed when Calzaghe beat Kessler and his reasons are probably similar to mine... Calzaghe was particularly relaxed throwing every punch in the book and taking almighty shots from Kessler in the second part of their fight ( particularly from round 8 on, all the way to the finish line) - switching smoothly from body to head with a lot of punches, sometimes falling out of position and taking it but repositioning and coming and coming - now Hopkins questions if he is able to do the same to him... I don't know but Calzaghe doesn't seem reluctant to do the same now. Come fight night, Hopkins has to come up with something exceptional because he is shooting himself on the foot with the talk.

 

The talk is his way of psyching himself up. Bloody good way too; has nothing to do with selling the fight; the journalists cannot get a word in sideways when he goes off on a rant. It's all part of the mental preparation. A bit like cognitive behavioural self-programming. Take it easy, Dorf; you have done some of the very best analysis on ESB. Time to relax and enjoy the feeling of anticipation.

 

Programming himself to do what? This is the problem... I would understand if he was to prove to us that Calzaghe didn't psyche him out to this point. To tell the truth, I never understood Bernard's behaviour before these fights - throws flags down, talks about some Dead man walking, barks on someone's face because his ex-promoter is in the other side, puts his hand on his opponent's face and gets fined. I wish Hopkins to take it easy but that's probably too much wishful thinking... I am not enjoying the feeling a little bit.

 

:huh

This is how he gets up for these fights! This is how he digs in deep for them! By doing stuff like that...by becoming bloody-minded and dark and mean and a hero in his own mind...typical Holywood stuff. He's phsyching himself up in this overly dramatic way. That's what works for him.

 

He'll do less than 2/3ds...about 600 over 12 rounds.

 

The most important thing for Hopkins is to settle in there quick and get his timiing down. Once he does that he can fire those hard counter right has which in turn will have Joe more hesitant throwing punches. I can't wait for this fight.

 

I think it will be 8-4 Calzaghe.

 

I feel Hopkins is putting the pressure on himself to perform -- to make it a situation where he feels he has to win no matter what, a he has before. Hopkins deals with mental pressure extremely favorably.

But the problem here is physical mainly, and it doesn't help that the opponent is a seasoned champion known for ring generalship.

I am personally of the opinion that Hopkins will be stopped, on stamina and accumulation mostly, as his whiskers are too good and his defense too formidable. What will let him down are his reflexes, handspeed and stamina.

I feel Joe has too quicksilver a rythm (feet, hands, and head) to be countered consistently the way Hopkins has to do it. From the 5th round or so on, Calzaghe will dominate an aged champions.

 

Hey, McGrain...looks like you lost an avatar bet, mate!:?

Nevermind, once the month is over, here's a good one for you:

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