Ali wins. Oops, sorry, old habits die hard. Seriously, more than likely Frazier wins but Liston would’ve still been a somewhat risky proposition, just imo - at the very least, Liston wasn’t worth the risk as measured against the reward that Joe would’ve garnered with a win over Sonny.
Yup I’ve always maintained that Frazier’s managers should’ve been fired if they’d taken this bout. Would Frazier have won? Most likely. Was it worth the risk when there were much higher ranked contenders who were easier stylistic match ups? **** no.
Yeah, what ever chance Sonny might’ve had, I see a limited window - him needing to KO/stop Joe within say 4 rounds otherwise all bets are off. Sonny’s post title gas tank only allowed for 7 or so rounds of viability at a stretch. By then, Liston was already or beginning to gas badly. I wouldn’t say Frazier was necessarily a slow starter per se but it would take him a few rounds to build up to his sublime full head of steam - prior to same is when Liston would have to try and catch Joe to hurt him bad and early.
Although Liston had a nice run of wins after his second loss to Ali the reality is that not one of them was an upper tier opponent let alone a top contender. He did fight a few names like Billy Joiner and Amos "Big Train" Lincoln but mostly they were middling foes. Sizing him up against a top guy is tough. Sonny was quite old at that point. When he finally fought a quality guy, Leotis Martin, in late 1969, he was viciously knocked out. That being said, before the 9th round kayo Sonny was winning the bout on all three judges cards and was using his long jab to great effect. I do think Frazier's relentless style would have finally worn down Liston and he would have won via late stoppage but the stylistic matchup was bad for Joe. If Liston could have kept Frazier at bay with his jab it would have been a long night for Frazier. As others have said, this would have been a very risky bout for the champion.
I’ve read a lot of conjecture as to whether post title Liston was seriously trying to progress himself to a shot at the title. I know all the yays and nays from both sides of the debate and won’t get bogged down in same. All in all, I would guess that if Liston was unequivocally granted a shot, he would’ve taken it. Certainly, he wouldn’t have been Robinson Crusoe if he was looking to ride on his prior, well earned rep. and take the path of least resistance to secure that shot. As such, the alleged lack of quality in his post title comp. isn’t the be all end all evidence that Liston wasn’t seeking an ultimate title shot. Henry Clark wasn’t a shabby conquest as at the time, was he? Clark was ranked as at the time I believe - but don’t quote me on that. lol.
By this point I think Frazier wins but at no point in either of their lives or careers would Charles Liston be an optimal matchup for Joe and I think Liston still at that point had the power to put Joe down and he wouldn't get back up like he did against Foreman.
If I recall correctly, Liston actually pursued a bout with Frazier because he believed that it would be an easy win for him. And that Frazier's team agreed with Liston, thusly ensuring that fight wouldn't happen.
While Liston would be a strong favorite over Frazier in their respective primes, & Liston still would be a stylistic risk., I do not think that Liston had enough then to be likely to beat an absolutely peak Frazier.
In this alternate timeline, by 1968 Liston would be 36-38 years old and way too gone to beat Joe. Sure Liston would still bring some stylistic and physical challenges to the ring; but nothing Smoke can't overcome. Liston would be unable to match Frazier relentless mobile pressure and would eventually gas out. Frazier UD, or even a late SP on technical grounds once Liston's tank is exhausted.
Frazier was on the rise in 1968. He was coming into his prime. Still hungry, determined with alot to prove. Sonny Liston was living in Las Vegas, running the streets wirh Davey Pearl. Some say he was into Heroin. Whatever Sonny's actual age was add about 10 years to it. I could see Liston being strong at the start but as the fight went on he would lose the taste for combat. Frazier's hooks to the body would lead to Liston retiring on his stool anywhere from rounds 8-10.
1968 Frazier was really good but still improving. 1968 Liston was diminished but still a skilled experienced powerhouse. He’s not fighting Big Train Lincoln so he gets in top shape for Frazier and stops him within 5. Substitute that with the vs Ali 1971 version and Frazier survives the early bombardment maybe even knockdowns and wears down Liston who runs out of gas by the 9th and gets KOd by 10 or 11 th round. This version of Joe is a little heavier stronger and more experienced than 1968. The 1962 Liston however would beat the 1971 Frazier.
