2 thoughts after re-watching the Jones-Calzaghe fight

1.

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Believe me, I thought he was, too, when I first watched the bout.

A couple of things go into this thought process for me:

* The cut had an effect on Roy

Not that he wins if he's not cut, but it hurt his ability to both see punches coming his way and to aim his own punches

* Roy went into '1-punch bomb' mode after the round 1 knockdown

He may not have been able to throw many more combos, but he didn't even try to do so

And the most important reason why I think Roy is not as shot as he seemed to be:

* Joe Calzaghe makes guys look a lot worse than they can be against other fighters

Just think of Hopkins here, especially after what he did against Pavlik.

Joe's skill, and particularly his speed and workrate makes guys look bad, particularly guys who may have a little less in the tank and who could get by with a lower-energy style against fighters who aren't Joe.

Roy is nowhere near what he once was, but I don't think he's as done as he looked on Saturday night. Calzaghe had plenty to do with that appearance, as did Roy's cut and Roy's falling in love with the home-run shot.

I think if Roy is matched properly he can still win fights against solid opposition, get a few more "W's" and make more $$$. Nobody else out there will make him look as bad as he looked Saturday, and he may not suffer such a wicked cut again, either.

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2.

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It's hard to really appreciate how good Calzaghe is unless you look at his fights a few times over and compare how guys look against him and how they look against other fighters. Roy looked good/respectable against Trinidad, yet he looked pathetic on Saturday night. Similar story with Hopkins, Joe and Pavlik. Hopkins was reduced to feigning and exaggerating low blows against Joe, yet he out-sped and never really tired against the far-younger Pavlik. None of this is coincidental.

After Joe was dropped in the first round, Roy landed several more good, hard counter and lead rights. None of them did anything, nor did the right uppercut Roy landed hard in the fight do anything. This is common for Joe: He can sometimes be put down early in a bout but then he seems to adapt to the power of the foe and shots have less effect on him, even ones thrown with equal power.

Not only is Joe fast, he has exceptional footwork, particularly the darting in-and-out he is able to do on his toes. This ability, combined with his fast hands, makes Calzaghe even that much harder to 'find' when an opponent is trying to land on him. Roy was whiffing at air many times in the fight. Some of that is diminished reflexes, some of it is only having one good eye after the cut. But some of it is because Calzaghe was bouncing in and out and just didn't give Roy anything to hit. Roy isn't what he once was but he still has very fast hands. Yet, he often was missing badly. Not the first Calzaghe opponent to find himself in that predicament. As Roy said, "I couldn't figure him out."

Which leads to another point about Joe -- he is one of the best fighters at adapting to his situation that I have ever seen. All good fighters have to be able to go to "Plan B" or respond to their circumstances, but Joe does it with an innate skill so proficient that it reminds me of Muhammad Ali. I'm not saying Calz is Ali, but that is the only person I can think of who was as good or better at consistently adapting to ongoing fights as is Joe.

With Calz, it's the same thing over and over and over again: Take about 2-4 rounds, maybe get dropped, figure out the other guy's game and then just dominate the fight.

I'm not taking anything away from Chad Dawson. He's young, fast, bigger and longer than Joe and likely hits at least as hard. He's marketable and should have an excellent career after a promising start.

But he's not ready for Calzaghe.

Might never be ready for Calzaghe. Nobody is. You can't simulate what Joe does with sparring partners, much as you couldn't get a guy to realistically imitate, say, Pac during a training camp.

David Haye calls himself "The Matrix," but that title would be better given to Joe Calzaghe. At least twice during the Jones fight, Joe threw over 100 punches in a round. As a reminder, Joe is nearing 37 years of age and is fighting just his second fight at 175 lbs. He should be slower, and less active. But he's not, he just keeps throwing, darting here and there, and throwing more. And the punches have an effect, as Roy's eye and his diminished movement as the fight wore on could tell you. Ask Mikkel Kessler how that body shot from Joe felt. Ask Jeff Lacy about Joe's pitter-pat punches.

If Joe Calzaghe and Chad Dawson meet in the ring -- and Joe doesn't go Antonio Tarver 'shot to Hell' between now and then -- Dawson will have the same chance Roy did Saturday: Land the big bomb. Chad will have his moments, but eventually he will be consumed by Joe's relentless punching volume and aggression. Additionally, I'm not sure Dawson can hurt Joe (although maybe early in the fight), Chad has to worry about his own chin and Chad isn't anywhere near the experience level of guys like Kessler, Hopkins or Roy. Finally, if the fight is in Wales with around 60,000 people going crazy for Joe, the younger fighter's nerves could fray and Joe will be energized beyond belief. Think Sam Peter-Vitali Klitschko in Berlin here. Or Calzaghe-Lacy.

At best for Dawson, I see him losing something like 112-116. The X-factor would be if he could hurt Joe, repeatedly. If he could, and Chad could drop Joe maybe once or a few times, then the fight might be closer. Barring that possibility, I see almost no way Dawson could win the fight. Joe would be all over him, in his chest, in his face, raining down blows in a way Dawson has never experienced. For a fighter prone to lapses and passivity, that could spell doom.

Joe has too much speed, workrate, pressure, experience and will for Chad Dawson, especially this young of a Chad Dawson. I hope the fight gets made and we're able to see the events unfold.

The best possible fight for Calz is likely a Kessler rematch. Mikkel is in his prime, had some good spots vs Joe and had a tweaked wrist for that fight (and he has the surgery scars to prove it). Of all the people Joe could fight that would likely be his hardest fight, with the possible exception of a Hopkins rematch. I think both Hopkins II and Kessler II would give Joe a tougher time than would Chad Dawson.

Let's hope we get to find out! :bbb

 

I think the eye may have had something to do with Roy's continual missing of his punches. Against opponents with less speed and workrate than Joe, I think Roy could still get some things done. He's nowhere close to what he once was but that's still better than many guys out there.

I think the biggest thing for Roy is to stay away from big-time punchers.

 

Let's hope we get to find out! :good

 

+1

It's not hard to get Chad against the ropes. For someone as aggressive as Calz, it would be even less difficult

 

Sparta, danjordan -- thanks a lot, guys. Much obliged!

Great minds think alike. :goodgood

 

Based on how totally shot Tarver looked against Dawson, I think Roy could easily handle Tarver now. Antonio has nothing on his punches, and that's the only thing that Roy ever had to fear from him.