3 Days Until "Jermaine Taylor after Pavlik" Syndrome Hits Cotto Smurf's Fans, HBO

It's going to be ugly, too. The bandwagon crash is going to be like a bullet train hitting the side of a mountain at full speed.

People are buying into the hype, telling themselves things like "Cotto is going to knock Margo out," etc., when Cintron couldn't even slow Margo down.

Miguel Cotto is no Jermaine Taylor. He is a much, much better fighter than that, although both Taylor and Cotto have tremendous heart. You have to give that to them. Taylor stepped right back to the plate after Pavlik destroyed him, made some changes, and went the full 12 in the rematch. Cotto took the fight with Margo, which is a lot more than the WWE guy can say. So props on this 'cajones' aspect to both JT and MC.

However, all of us who knew that MC was nothing close to what HBO has tried to build him up to be -- or at least that he can't match up with Margo -- will be doing the "I told you so" thing early Sunday morning. Just like we did with Taylor.

Don't say you weren't warned.

Prepare yourself for the "Cotto Was Overrated," "Margo Should Be Forced To Fight At Junior Middleweight," and "Who Wins: Margarito vs Wlad?" threads, because they are all on deck.

Cotto should look great early, and people will be thinking it's Clottey all over again, except Cotto won't have a supposedly hurt hand/wrist/finger/...

Cotto will move, Cotto will box, Cotto will go to the body. Cotto should be ahead on the scorecards in the early rounds of the fight and going into the middle rounds.

Cotto's fans will be thinking "Margo isn't anything," probably.

And then...

Cotto will slightly tire or lose his focus just enough, Cotto will be stalked, Cotto will be hit, Cotto will be hurt, Cotto will throw low blows, Cotto will be dropped and Cotto will be stopped.

Get ready for it.

The ONLY guy in the welterweight division who can hang with Margarito is Williams. Floyd retired because he doesn't want any part of Margo or Williams. Mosley passed up $8 million to fight Margo and instead took on Cotto.

Just like Shane, everybody knows the deal.

Except the Cotto fans. And HBO.

Saturday, they will know as well.

Same as they did after Pavlik-Taylor I & II.

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Thanks, brother.

Once Margarito gets his rhythm in this fight, however fast that comes, Cotto is going to get run over.

Can't wait.

good:thumbsup

 

Styles makes fights. Quality of opposition counts, for sure, but Margo's been in the game for 15 years and has sparred with many top guys and seen about all the styles you can see.

This is just a bad matchup for Cotto.

But we'll see, we'll see.

Here's a stat that really portends bad things for Cotto.

Power shot % landed vs Cotto:

Judah: 57%

Mosley: 53%

Now, Margo isn't nearly as fast as either of those guys. But he's more active and taller.

If Margo lands anywhere even close to that number of power shots, and we all know Cotto is no defensive wizard and Mosley had him hurt and on his bike the last 4 rounds, Cotto is going to be knocked out.

Cotto had better make a very determined effort to try to go to Margo's body and slow him down. If he doesn't, or even if he gets caught while doing so, this fight will be over inside of 6 rounds.

3 days, my man!

:goodgood

 

Just one more thought:

Everyone knows that Cotto is skilled and 'cute' as a fighter, or that he is capable of being so. He showed that while on his bike against Mosley.

However, unlike a fighter like Floyd (who could probably last the distance with Margo), Cotto isn't slick enough to be able to stay out of danger for all 12 rounds. He not elusive enough or quick enough to do this. His defense isn't good enough, either.

People want to talk about Clottey. Clottey has SUPERIOR defensive skills, really top-shelf. And all that happened to him was that Margo set a compubox record against him by throwing like 1675 punches en route to winning the last 8 rounds of the fight on all cards, I believe.

In other words, the Clottey Strategy didn't work. And it was executed by a guy who is at least as big as Cotto (he's actually bigger, IMO), who has an iron chin and who is a master defensive boxer. Say what you want about Clottey's hand, too, but Floyd had a busted hand against Castillo and he still executed his strategy. Margo just imposed his will on Clottey, as he does to all the guys he fights.

So we're supposed to take a slightly smaller, lesser-chinned, nowhere-near-as-good-defensively fighter in Cotto and have him execute a supposedly good strategy which led to the guy who first tried it to being shut out the last 8 rounds? That's the winning formula?

Ha ha ha. Good luck.

Cotto better have those low blows ready to be thrown on Saturday night. Baring a fluke cut or injury, he is going to need them and anything else he can think of to stay off the canvas.

This isn't DeMarcus Corley, Ricardo Torres or Zab Judah here he's fighting. When Margo hurts you, you're done. Just ask Cintron, who said something after the second fight like "he wanted the KO badly."

I almost feel sorry for Cotto and his 'huggers.

 

Here is Margo's record since his third fight in 1999 on (since Margo was 21 years old, approximately):

21 fights
18 wins
02 losses (Santos [cut], technical decision loss; Williams)
01 NC (Santos [cut])

16 of 18 wins by KO/TKO/opponent retired
16 of 21 fights he won by KO/TKO/opponent retired
Not seriously hurt in any fight even once
Not knocked down once
Not stopped once

Wins w/o KO:
* Perez (probably fought giving Perez too much respect after Perez knocked him down 3 years earlier)
* Clottey (great defense & chin)
Clottey was hurt at least once by Margarito; don't know about Perez. Perez shut out, basically, in rematch


Only Williams clearly and cleanly beat AM in last 12 years, since AM was 18 years old or so.

Only 3 guys have ever put AM down since he started fighting pro at the age of 15; last time was 9 years ago, when AM was 21 years old
(Cotto hurt, down in 2005)
One time AM put down with body shot, when still in teens (1996; AM was 18 years old)
Last time knocked down was when he was 21 years old
Never knocked out

Losses:
* Santos - Cut stopped the fight, barely lost on cards. Santos is slightly taller than Margarito, is a multiple-time champion and is larger than Margarito naturally. Also, Santos is a very fast-handed, complete fighter.

* Williams - Physical freak who threw 103 punches/round

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Ok, what conclusions can we draw from this information?

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Miguel Cotto is not larger or longer than Margarito.

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Even the Perez headshot in '99 saw Margarito immediately up off of the canvas. He looked more embarrassed than anything. He won the fight, too. You never, ever, see Margarito reeling back from power shots or on the run. Even when Williams beat him, he did so purely by volume and never had Margo in the least bit of trouble. The "Iron Chin" thing, for at least 9 years or so, is very real. Ditto the body. He's only been down once in his career from a body shot, and he was a teenager then.

Miguel Cotto is almost assuredly not going to be the first guy to hurt Margarito in 9 years. If guys like Williams and Santos didn't do it, the smaller Cotto is not going to do it. Cotto couldn't even hurt Mosley despite Mosley being wide open for Cotto's punches all night.

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That's it. Since he was 18 years old, he's lost cleanly 1 time. Since Miguel Cotto was like a freshman in high school, Margarito has lost cleanly once.

As I've said before, there is only one Paul Williams. Williams is a physical freak, and Cotto is nothing like him at all in terms of physical tools.

Miguel Cotto, forget about not having Williams' physical talents, could not DREAM of throwing 103 punches/round for 12 rounds as Williams did. There is no comparison between Williams and Cotto.

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Only the iron-chinned defensive wizard Clottey and the man who put Margo down last, Perez, went the distance in what were easy wins for Margo. Clottey was rocked, was on his bike much of the second half of the fight and got a compubox record set against him. Perez was basically shut out the entire fight in the rematch, and Margo probably fought him cautiously after having been knocked down in the first match.

In the last 9 years, 4 men have gone the distance with Margo. Two are taller, larger men. One is a defensive expert with an iron chin who took 1675 punches thrown at him. The other was shut out and had knocked Margo down in a previous fight.

Miguel Cotto is not taller or larger than Margo. He is not a defensive expert, nor does he have an iron chin. He will never last 1675 punches coming his way. He did not knock Margo down in a previous fight with him.

If Miguel Cotto cannot get Margo's respect Saturday night -- like Perez did -- he is going to get run over. He does not have the physical tools Santos or Williams do, nor does he have the defensive skill or chin of Clottey. His only chance is to try to keep Margo off of him, likely by going to the body.

If he can't do this early on, the fight is going to be short and Cotto will end up like Golden Johnson or Six Heads Lewis -- totally overwhelmed and destroyed. Think a much larger Ricardo Torres just landing shot after shot on Cotto's wobbly jaw and body. Golden Johnson is not an easy guy to hit, supposedly, and he was wailed upon -- very accurately -- by Margo.

Even if Cotto is able to dance away and/or get Margo's respect, it is still very likely that Cotto, as is his tendency, will wear down as the fight progresses and be stopped later by the swarming Margarito.

But if Cotto isn't able to get away or slow down Margo early on, this fight is not going to last long. Margo will simply 'wrecking ball' Cotto Smurf and add him to the growing scrap heap that Cintron, Golden Johnson, and many others have been put on over the last 12 years.