_Can/Will Pavlik stop Hopkins?_

he can stop him but i highly doubt that he will acutally do it b hop is to smart to take enough shots to get ko'ed

 

Fair post. You did a great job of presenting your argument. Let's see if I can do the same.

When it comes to "ring intelligence" JT is NOT the sharpest tool in the shed. That's why I used that example. Pavlik is far more cerebral than people give him credit for.

At this point in time Bernard's stamina is questionable at best. No fighter between 160 and 175 can afford to run out of gas against Pavlik. When Kelly got his ass beat in the 2nd round of Pavlik/Taylor I, he still threw 60 punches. In the 11th and 12th rounds of the 2nd fight he threw as many punches as he did in the middle rounds. You can't run out of steam against KP, and not pay dearly for it, but Hopkins will.

When it comes to controling the distance, two factors come up. 1) Both guys are listed at 75" of reach. BHop is WAY bigger than Pav through the chest and shoulders. That translates into a significant arm length advantage for KP. 2) Pavlik is one of the best in the business at controling the distance. That is going to make it VERY hard for Hops to use his clinching and holding tactics.

When BHop does clinch and hold, he's is going to find out that it isn't so easy to do against a guy who swings a 100 pound lead filled ball bat with 1 hand.

 

No. Hopkins will cheat/foul/potshot his way to a decision loss.

 

his youth , agression and workrate surpasses JT's who beat Hops twice



next :roll:

 

edit....

 

There is a rather significant irony about this thread. It's pretty close to an even split. 34 yes votes. Now here's the rub. At least 80% of us thought that Pavlik/Taylor II would end in a KO. That includes people who thought JT would win! I expect a Pavlik KO, but I will not be surprised if it goes the distance. Either way Hops takes a beating.

 

That sure? I think this will be Pavlik's toughest fight to date.

 

In some ways it will be his toughest fight. For a long time I wanted Pavlik/Wright to happen simply because I wanted to see Pavlik advance along the learning curve by fighting a fighter he could learn from. In my opinion this is even better.

 

Could he stop him?..........Yes

Will he stop him?.............No

Do i hope he stops him?............yes

 

Hopkins is due to hit the canvas.
Pavlik by KOLD

 

I wanted him to fight Wright as well. I think you mentioned him fighting A.A. would be target practice. I agree (although many don't) he'd just pop him all day long.....:bbb

Bernard obviously is a lot bigger and stronger than Winky, but they certainly have their similarities, in being difficult to score on albeit for different reasons. But I think it'll ultimately come down to stamina and Pavlik has youth on his side. Do you think that Hopkins will try and knock out Pavlik early? That is certainly a game plan and as crazy as it sounds it might be his best bet. I do think that from the get go Pavlik should work the body shots because the first 4-5 rounds Hopkins will be his best and slipping head punches....

 

Actually I already said exactly what you are suggesting on another thread. It sounds counter intuitive, but KP does have a history of being vulnerable in the early going, and I'm 100% certain BHop is aware of that. If this fight goes past 5 rounds, Pavlik will be the man in charge.

As for body work, a lot of people do not realize that Pavlik is capable of being a murderous body puncher. That's one of the things he was known for earlier in his career. Say what you will about Bronco McKart, but the man is double tough, and Pav put him on his hands and knees with a single lead right to the body. In the 2nd Taylor fight it was a right to the body in the 11th that basically sealed the deal.

 

This is the point though. Taylor didn't think, he just did. It was natural athletic instinct, and it threw Hopkins off of his game. Pavlik is more cerebal than Taylor, he is more calculating, and while that is generally a good thing, Taylor's unpredicatablility is what gave Hopkins problems, Pavlik does the thing most boxers would chose to do in whatever situation he's in because he knows it's the right thing to do, therefore he is more predictable, which is horrible against Hopkins. Pavlik doesn't get too much credit for his ring intelligence and skills, but we shouldn't overrate them because of that. Compared to Hopkins, he is very basic.

One thing to look at is Pavlik has fought no one like Hopkins. He has Taylor - a pure athlete, Miranda - a crude puncher, and a solid but very limited fighter in Zertuche, as well as another limited puncher in Zuniga. He has never been in the ring with anyone like Hopkins in any way.

Hopkins has no one exactly like Pavlik, but the similarities are there between he and Trinidad or he and Tarver. Tarver hits harder, Trinidad hit just as hard, Trinidad was faster but smaller, Tarver was bigger but far less active, and both were at least as skilled as Pavlik. Hopkins ran over both with ease.

I doubt Pavlik will control range against Hopkins because he uses the jab to control range. His jab will be gone by the 3rd round against Hopkins, relying on your jab is a bad move against a guy like B-Hop. Unless Hopkins is more or less shot, he will control the range with his footwork.

The only way Pavlik wins IMO is if the judges just give it to him on workrate, or if Hopkins is shot, and while he is clearly far from his prime, he still hasn't looked totally shot and is still good enough to beat Pavlik, who's style fits Hopkins.

 

Two points:

1) You're correct in your break down of KP's opponents. I'd throw McKart in there too, but only because McKart had never been stopped, and Kelly made short work of him by doing exactly what his corner told him to.

2) I think the stamina issue is THE issue. It isn't weight, or power. Hopkins cannot maintain the pace Pavlik will set for more than a few rounds.

We'll see about the jab. I've been saying for a long time that the key to beating Pavlik would be to take away his jab.

 

true. but hopkins remains competitive for now and when the time comes that he can't utilise his excellent defence to make up for his low volume output of punches then it will be a different fight.

personally, i have a lot of admiration for hopkins, his discipline to stay in shape, and his performances against taylor, tarver and calzaghe in recent times despite his age.

that's why he's truly a great fighter.