I have just picked up on a couple of things with Pavlik being the best fighter at 160. 1 - He can't double up the jab. (That limits him a lot, as the straight right hand becomes telegraphed), Hopkins should be able to deal with that easy. 2 - Lower rate combinations. Relies on 1-2 obviously, a lot more then normal. At 160 he was throwing 4 punch combinations a lot more. I think we might be jumping the gun on this one, saying Pavlik will be better at a higher rate. Just because hes big it doesn't mean much. More to do with bone density. Although i'd like to hear your views. Personally i think he will struggle at SMW.
It is pretty amazing that a 6'2 guy can even make 160 without being drained. He will be as good, if not better at 168.
It has been said many times, and you only need to check his record to find this out, that Kelly has fought several times over 160 and close to 170. I dont think the weight will be an issue. Nard was a largish middle but his ability to come in well under even when he was close to 40 shows he isnt exactly at his natural weight either.
Pavlik throws punches with substance and not necessarily in large numbers. Obviously, if your aim is to punch hard as you can and may, you are not going to throw a lot or else you might be winding your punches and not really discharging with full power. What does this have to do with the upcoming fight? It has a lot to do because Kelly knows that the way to beat Hopkins is to use Calzaghe's formula and that is run those numbers on Hopkins cause he can't run those numbers back ( actually Kelly said in one interview that Bernard lost to Joe since he only threw 20 punches a round and only really had Joe in round one) but, on the flipside, if Kelly is to wind'em a lot, then he's not going to land them as clean as possible and not about with the same impact. I do doubt that the judges will see it for Hopkins if those stats show a big difference tho... It's hard to hand an up-coming star his first pro loss if the fight is close and if he doesn't get hurt bad in a significant moment of the bout ( late in the fight).