A few thoughts on Cotto/Margarito

Yup, we anticipate one thing and then look what happens. It proves that hindsight is 20/20 vision.

 

If you say so, but they're far from perfect.. I see him throwing and missing tons of punches, but I see Cotto landing more accurate shots on him.. But like I said in the first post, I could be wrong.. We'll just have to wait and see July 26th..

 

Your a gentlemen and a scholar:good

It will be a great fight till the bell rings... One man will dominate. I do not antcipate a back and forth battle. Someone will have a long night.

 

Not buying the rhetorical hyperinflation spreading in Margarito's favour.

What I expect instead is a fight leaning toward tactical choices that will eventually turn in Cotto's favour.

Margarito's approach is somewhat predictable as his M.O. invariably consists of pressing the fight behind a leading left hand and throwing high numbers of combinations once he finds his range, the operative word being "range". The high workrate and stamina, displayed by Margarito, was counterbalanced in every occurrence by his wide, loopy, relatively slow and fairly inaccurate punching and vulnerability to counters once he lets his hands go. Margarito furthermore has this propensity to lean sideways while throwing wide left uppercuts from the outside.

Cotto's approach on the other hand is not as predictable as he has shown very good ring adaptability in his recent fights. Specifically against Mosley, he was able to better control the distance between the two. When he moved in on Mosley, landing the overhand right from a full crouch stance, he would first let Mosley compromise himself with the uppercut. When Mosley needed to press the fight, Cotto managed nonetheless to keep him at distance with the jab despite Mosley's much longer reach (which, btw, happens to be 1" longer than Margarito's).

Controlled aggression and keeping himself outside Margarito's range will be the main features of Cotto's approach. He will use lateral movement to throw Margarito off balance and move in on him every chance he gets so to cut the distance.

Margarito's uppercuts are not nearly as efficient when thrown from very close range. Conversely, Cotto's left hook to the body is best delivered at that distance. One advantage of having shorter arms.

Combined to the fact that Cotto is a relatively small target that moves around the ring faster than his opponent, what I see is Margarito's workrate and outright aggression style dropping significantly in volume and efficiency as he keeps himself busy trying to block Cotto's body punches.

Cotto by UD.

 

According to Compu Box Margo landed 42% against Cintron. Compu Box connect rates tend to be a bit inflated, but Margo is not as sloppy as some want to make him. Cotto must avoid going to war with Margo; control the pace, control the ring, make Margo chase him a bit, and box, box, box! I'll be rooting for Miguel, but I AM NOT making a prediction:bart

 

When the fight was first announced, I was envisioning a close, tough fight.....But the more I think about it, the more I see Cotto overwhelming Marg. I think Cotto's speed will be the difference in this bout. Although noone can deny Antonio's resolve - and he has one helluva chin.

What makes this fight so intriguing is the will possessed by both fighters. That, and you know they come to fight.

Above all else, I hope it'll be a good fight.

 

42% connect rate is atypical of Tony's numbers, which average somewhere near 25%.

 

:good Great post.

 

tough pick...I think Marg is too sloppy for Cotto and I think Miguel is too small and vulnerable for Tony...dizang!

 

Interesting thought. I feel this is one of those few fights where the fight is so even from a pre-fight POV that no one can feel pretty confident in their pick. It must also have a psychological effect on the fighters. Does this give any edge to the champion Cotto or the challenger Margarito.

 

You would think so, but alot of people seem extremely certain of the outcome. I count myself among them. I'm literally positive that Margarito will win. 99% sure.

 

Cotto doesn't need to throw 700-850 to win. Cotto is much more accurate and doesn't waste his punches. Margo on the other hand has no choice but throw that many. Trust me, Margo will slow down and lose his power with every round that goes by...Cotto will only get stronger the longer the fight goes.