been thinking about this fight a lot recently and I'm more excited for this fight than most fights that have occurred in the past few years and could be planned in the future..,. I personally want chavez JR to win because I like his I don't give a **** attitude but conventional wisdom says sergio should win.... here's how i envision it (even tho i want JCC to win) If we look at sergio martinez past 9 fights we see that martinez scored TKO/KOs over Darren Barker, Sergiy dzinzurik, Paul Williams (2nd fight), Alex Bunema, Matthew Macklin. the two fighters who managed NOT to get TKO/KO'd by martinez were paul williams & kelly pavlik. Stylistically the fighters who did get KO/TKO'd were NOT come forward pressure guys for the most part. They were all boxer sluggers. Guys like Kessler who don't do a lot of moving backwards but they aren't ALL OUT come forward guys either. Looking at the TKO/KO victims style in comparison to Paul williams & kellly pavlik, those two guys are pretty much come forward guys that apply a lot of pressure and stalk their opponent as opposed to trying to calculate them. This makes me think that if JCC can withstand martinez early barrage that he has a chance to break martinez down. As we saw in the KP & PW fights SM typically slows down a bit in the middle rounds 5-7 it seems like normally. I think that if Chavez can put in some good body work that he can slow SM down to score a finish later on into the fight ala margarito vs cotto (no cement wraps) for chavez to pull this off a few things will be important. 1) no head hunting!!!!!!! 2) don't stop coming forward 3) stay relevatively close to martinez 4) keep putting in the body work 2 things SM does very well is confusing his opponent into head hunting with his hands down defense. it usually fools guys into thinking he can easily be accessed upstairs but his head movement and counter punching is too good for this. The way you off set this is to (in my observations) is you keep SM moving backwards and you always stay a half step away from him. It's very tricky cause dude has power & speed but its been seen in the KP & PW fights in certain spots that keeping martinez moving backwards under pressure can keep him off balance my prediction is that IF! JCC JR can withstand martinez early barrage and takes advantage of SMs mid round breaks and puts in body work he can break his will down by the 9th round and finish him off in the 10th... I think the PW KO was a perfect punch & SM fights boxer sluggers really well.... SM can be beat with HIGH pressure or superior boxing (would love to see martinez vs ward but martinez is worried about fighting pac & floyd... its funny because he says he's too little for 168 but asks floyd & pac to come up.... hypocritical a bit) anyways I look forward to everyones opinion.... I think JCCJR should be hte underdog but I think this is a fight that the under dog can win so there is my pic.... enjoy:bbb
Chavez is the type of guy who needs to set his feet when he punches with meaningful punches. Plus his workrate isn't all that great for a pressure fight (like Margarito). He'll need to take away Sergio's legs or keep him on the ropes. I just don't think he'll be able to do that though. I don't see him keeping Sergio there for long
