That's absolutely right. Of course sometimes a fighter 'more polished in one dimension' can achieve more (Winky, Tito) but in this case Kessler's superior ring intelligence and bigger size would be enough to win over Arthur. But I only call a guy one dimensional if he's in a tough situation and just can't change the pace, tactics or style to pull off the victory. And I believe that Abraham would make Pavlik look like a one-dimensional fighter. But that's tough call since Arthur's punch output is not so good.
The only problem is that there won't be any counter-punching opportunities to land an uppercut against a quick, very tight defensive counter-puncher...