Adamek vs Haye, who takes it? Adamek seems the heir apparent of the CW division, has two very good wins there. Haye is its last undisputed Champion. Adamek very tough, solid skillset, great chin, good stamina.....good power. Haye is bigger, faster, more powerful, better skilled. However, worse chin and stamina. I'd take Haye here, I think Adamek is too easy to hit, and would be taking leather all night. Probably get stopped on his feet. Still, If Adamek can weather the storm and take Haye into the later rounds, and be able to withstand his power, he could get a late TKO.....Haye is definately favourite though.
I too would make the Haye from the Maccarinelli fight the favourite to win. He's got too much power against a natural Lightheavyweight, though a late Adamek rally and win is possible as you say. That said, I don't know if Haye could comfortably make 200 anymore (he was having lots of trouble with that before he bulked up to Heavyweight).
Since this is more or less a fantasy matchup that would never happen, I will take the Haye that fought against Maccarinelli against the Adamek that fought Cunningham. Haye would have to be a big favourite based on Adamek's open defence and his power. Adamek has a good chin, but its very difficult to take those kinds of shots if you are open, regardless of chin. If Adamek kept it tight, tried to put some kind of educated pressure on Haye and limit his leverage in close, he may have a chance.