Agit Kabayel vs. Damian Knyba set for January 10.

It's not really high risk, let's get real here.

It has the potential to do a lot of damage if Agit finds a way to lose - but that's always the case with a soft touch bout... But we call them that for a reason, he's extremely unlikely to lose.

 

It is, but even if Kabayel's being overhyped a bit (which isn't impossible) there should still be levels upon levels between them.

Strange things happen at heavy sometimes, but it's a rarity - Kabayel is still extremely unlikely to lose this one, and that makes it not very risky at all.

And, to be honest, if he manages to lose this then he deserves all the reputational damage he'll get for choosing a soft touch and not getting the job done - it's fine by me.

 

We don't know how good Knyba is, I can't call this a soft touch yet. Maybe a cherrypick but Knyba is a 6'7, rangy undefeated prospect. Its like calling Wardley a soft touch for Parker. Who did Wardley beat before ? Huni was skilled but he wasn't ranked

 

Wardley had beaten Huni, Clarks, Adeleye... Not nearly the kind of record that'd lead you to expect him to beat Parker - and not that many did... And not many expected Parker to fight quite such a dumb fight, either.

Pointing out the exceptions is great, and all that, but it doesn't justify picking massive underdogs.

Knyba hasn't been chosen because he's saleable or because he's a known/proven challenge...
He's been chosen because he's got no record to suggest he's got any chance at all of winning and because Kabayel needs to fight but either can't make a good fight or doesn't want to risk his positioning by taking a challenge - that's the definition of a soft touch.


Realistically, guys are rarely miles better than they've proven - and Knyba would have to be a ridiculous amount better than his record shows to have a chance... It's very, very unlikely that he's that rare exception.

 

Clarke, Adeleye, Huni, they weren't seen as proper contenders yet and Wardley struggled 2 of them. Based on this Wardley could have been seen as a tune up or a soft touch for the much proven Parker, until he beat Parker.

Call Knyba a cherrypick but cherrypicks can go wrong. I can't call a giant undefeated prospect with decent skills a soft touch yet

 

They still aren't... Because they're not.
But they're still quite a long way above anyone Knyba has beaten.

And to a lot of people he was, until it went wrong.

I will, because he is.

It's not impossible for it to go wrong, and Kabayel will be a laughing stock if it does... And he'll deserve it, so it's fine by me.

I can, and will, call someone completely unproven a soft touch for a supposedly top contender - that's exactly what it is, it's a decision to pick on an unproven (and very likely crap) fighter instead of a more proven opponent bringing more attention, more money and a known challenge.

Make whatever excuses for it you like, it's a poor show - and a conscious decision, especially in light of who he's a replacement for.

 

They still weren't contenders and Clarke arguably beat Wardley the first time, then Huni schooled him before the KO. So by this logic Wardley was a soft touch for Parker, but we know how that went. This generation of heavyweights is over. All these established veterans you claim are too proven for the young guns will soon be losing to those same young prspects. It's already started. The top 10 are getting replaced quickly. Knybas combination of unknown plus youth plus size plus rangy style makes him a risk. How can a fighter ever prove themselves if they don't target the ranked competition ? Knyba wants to prove himself against a top 10 fighter in Kabayel.

Just because he hasn't fought the names doesn't mean he can't beat them, resumes don't win fights, this is a fact. Knyba hasn't lost yet and hasn't gotten a controversial decision so we simply have no clue how good he is. There is not enough evidence for me to call it a soft touch, it's a cherrypick, 2 different things.

Also, you didn't even give him his deserved props for handling Chisora and Zhang better than Parker did

 

Your last part of your post shows why in its own way it really is high risk
Infact any fight he takes before a title shot carries risks regardless of his opposition

 

Only in an upside down world...

It's high risk because it's super low risk... Because losing a super low risk fight has significant impact.

Plus, of course, not fighting at all carries a risk - of getting rusty and/or becoming irrelevant.


Any fight EVER carries a risk - just like getting in your car and driving it carries a risk...
But that risk is very different if you're driving stone cold sober, within the speed limits and alert Vs if you're steaming drunk and driving like you stole it.
One is risky driving and the other isn't - you can still get wiped out by a truck if you're the sensible guy, but it's still far, far less likely that you're going to get in trouble in the first place.


I don't see how any of the semantics changes that this is, in fact, a very low risk fight.

 

It's not about being too proven to lose...

It's that proven is reliable - unproven is not.

So the reasonable expectation is that the proven guys will usually win - and the bigger the gulf in provenness, the more likely the more proven guy is to win...

That doesn't mean upsets don't happen, and declines don't tip the scales sometimes.

They can't... But that doesn't mean someone jumping from domestic journeyman level opponents straight up to international contenders stands much chance at all - realistically, they just don't.

Or in short, Knyba has very little chance with that big a jump in levels unless he's way, way, way better than he's been able to prove so far.... And that's very unlikely.

Can't? Not necessarily.
Won't? Realistically, yes.

Resumes don't win fights - no...
Resumes are suggestive of what it's realistic and reasonable to expect? Absolutely, yes.

He hasn't fought good enough opponents for there to even BE any evidence that he's got any chance of being competitive against an international contender... Or even an international gatekeeper.

Far, far fewer will make it from domestic journeymen to international contenders than will fail along the way.

Let guys prove you wrong, sure, but you should realistically assume that they're not going to - because most won't.

There's no evidence whatsoever to suggest it's NOT a soft touch pick - and a reasonable amount of circumstantial evidence that it is.

The better you want to assume Kabayel is, the softer touch Knyba looks.

Me not being all in on the Kabayel hype doesn't weaken my argument.

 

What circumstantial evidence. There is none, there is no proof hes a top guy but no proof he's a soft touch so it's a bit harsh to call him that. He's a prospect. He's an unknown quantity but still has youth, confidence and size. His physical dimensions and his rangy style can't be written off, he has an 86 inch reach. I can't label him a soft touch like we know how good he is, we don't. I will reserve my opinions

 

When there's no proof either way, the odds being stacked against means you should generally assume they're not going to make it.

Circumstantial evidence?

When your guy is an interim champion at a career high moment, you don't take a low paid fight against an unranked opponent with next to no name recognition unless you have good reason to assume the risk of your boy losing is very low Indeed.

That's a pretty strong indication alone that Knyba is no threat - Kabayel's handlers wouldn't have made this fight if he was, it would make zero sense to fight someone risky for peanuts.

There have been thousands of huge fighters who have reach - and almost none of them make it to contender level.

We're essentially doing the same thing...

The difference is what we think the default assumption should be.

I reserve my opinion on someone's ability to be good until they prove they're capable of being anywhere near that level...
Because so few make it, my default assumption is that most will not - the evidence bears this out time and time again.

A soft touch is a fight you assume is going to be very easy - and this is one of those.

It could backfire, but it's very unlikely - it's certainly not reasonable to expect it to, or to treat it as a decent opponent on the slight chance that they're able to perform much better than expected.


Or in other words - there's levels to this.

 

Knyba isn't a terrible opponent by any means but it's just that Kabayel fights so infrequently i'd hope for better.
Kabayel has fought once a year the last 8 years with only one exception (2024). Don't really now why.

Lets hope this year is a 2 fight or even, heaven forbid, a 3 fight year for him. He needs to do all he can to showcase his talents and force a title fight.

 

Kabayel specializes in chopping down big men

Makhmudov, Zhang and now it is Knyba's turn