AJ v Ngannou

AJ when he's ruthless and properly letting his hands go is pretty lethal, Povetkin was still a very tough guy at that time and he absolutely obliterated him. The Whyte stoppage shouldn't be underestimated either, smashed that cantaloupe to pieces.

 

I cannot take any win over Whyte serious after watching his effort against Fury and Povetkin was a small old man at 39 years of age when he fought Joshua. His prime was in 2013 when Wlad schooled him in Moscow and he was an egg shell after that fight.

Joshua specialises in bashing up small old men such as Povetkin and next to zero risk threats such as Pulev and Whyte.

Joshua is heading for pain soon and I think Ngannou has a decent chance of doing a number on him if we see the same man in the ring that fought Fury.

Styles make fights, Ngannou is a very strong tough man, Joshua is easy to hit with weak chin and heart, both have good power and it should be a great fight while it lasts.

This to me is Joshua's highest risk fight after Usyk and Wlad.

 

He did brutally KO the Russian. Although I thought Povetkin was close to pulling off a Ruiz in that fight a couple of times.

 

I think you are talking more about physical attributes rather than a stylistic match-up, though. They play a huge part in this era, no doubt! But in terms of style, Joshua will have the advantage over Ngannou.

Joshua's problem seems to always be in terms of the style match up. Maybe I'm wrong on this, but Joshua used to be exclusively a mid-range combination puncher / boxer-puncher. However, he discovered against Klitschko that an elite boxer who likes to fight from the outside made things very difficult for him. It was Joshua's youth and physical attributes that made the fight exciting and carried him through.

Against Ruiz, Joshua was up against not a swarmer as such, as Ruiz is too plodding, but his hand speed advantage certainly had a swarming element to them in the exchanges, and his chin allowed him to stay in such exchanges if Joshua was willing to close the distance. That was a bad in ring decision by Joshua to get involved in exchanges with Ruiz Jr. that cost him his belts. So, what does Joshua do in the rematch? He takes on the role of the pure outside fighter, and boxes Ruiz's head off to a wide points win. Not popular, but certainly effective.

Since, then Joshua had been slowly trying to remould his boxer-puncher style to be more reliant on his boxing rather than his punching. Unfortunately for Joshua he also has a chip on his shoulder which leads to bad in ring decisions where he keeps seeming to want to beat people at their own game. Add to that I think in the Usyk fight his team realised as a mid-range puncher was going to be food for Usyk. Ideally, a swarming style (ala Chisora) would have been the best approach to fight Usyk, but that isn't Joshua. The option he took, was to try and box with a master boxer. Which was a stylistic match up he was never going to win. And made people question his whole set up. At the end of the day, I don't think Joshua has the style to beat Usyk, and until Usyk slows down, he won't be able to impose his physical attributes (though we saw a little of that in fight 2).

Ngannou (a novice boxer), on the other hand, seems to be a very basic slugger with counter punching tendencies. He could happily just walk Fury down, because Fury's flicking jab wasn't going to keep him honest, and Fury isn't the outside boxer of Klitschko 2015. In contrast to Joshua, Fury has converted more the other way into a boxer-puncher, the only problem is, he can't really punch, but he has that size advantage! So, Fury got forced (or chose to get) into exchanges where Ngannou was happy to take one to land one of his counters, which resulted in the knock down, and Fury's size advantage being nullified again and again against an absolute tank of a man.

Personally, I think if Joshua approaches this fight seriously, and just boxes from the outside keeping Ngannou honest with a strong jab and 1-2, this should be a relatively wide decision for him, he might even get the stoppage late. Ngannou has the chin, and monsterous power, but he doesn't have the hand speed of Ruiz, or the footspeed to swarm Joshua. And he certainly isn't going to outbox Joshua. Plus as nurological pointed out above, the element of surprise will be gone.

Of course, that chip on Joshua's shoulder might cause him to make daft decisions again. But just as Sugar Hill Steward said to Fury in the corner "you can make this as hard as you want it to be" (I'm paraphrasing). The outside fighter beats the slow-footed slugger.

Of course, I am probably just typing rubbish and seeing what I want to see, but just my thoughts on it.

 

Very good knowledgeable post and you are talking sense as to how Joshua wins the fight but he will be slated if he follows that strategy and fails to get the stoppage.

Ngannou may also have a plan B or C to turn this contest into the fight we want to see. If anything he will be full of confidence, knows he can do the rounds and has the experience of fighting the lineal heavyweight champion so will also be better prepared.

Good intriguing fight for me and anything can happen if Joshua comes to fight instead of doing the Riyadh Marathon.

 

Looking at the odds for this and I reckon I'm gonna have a punt on both Joshua points and Ngannou stoppage. Both good value at 5/1 imo.

 

I've done the same. 5/1 Joshua Points, 6/1 Ngannou stoppage...

 

Dan Rafael stated on interview he spoke to Zhang team's who have confirmed he is 100% fighting on AJ vs Ngannou undercard.

My guess is against one of Parker, Ruiz or Wilder.

 

It could be Wilder. Wilder has nowhere else to go. He has to scalp a top 10 name quickly or he's finished. The Big Chinaman could just sit on his mando spot true but the Saudi Terror State will likely pay him similar money to fight Wilder than he'd get for a title shot anyway. Makes sense for both men. If I'm the chinaman I'm taking that fight 100%.

 

Well if fatty said so….

 

"Wlad schooled him in Moscow"

Schooled him in Greco-Roman wrestling, though Povetkin should have responded by hitting him low, headbutting him etc.

"he was an egg shell after that fight."

Povetkin's power seemed to increase substantially post-Wlad, having not really been a puncher before that. Wach commented that he'd sparred Povetkin quite a bit previously but the version he faced in 2015 was stronger and more powerful, with better stamina. But while still formidable, the older version that Joshua fought was probably heavily drug tested.

"next to zero risk threats such as Pulev and Whyte."

Whyte was somewhat of a risk, Chisora-Parker-Ruiz level. He was aggressive, determined, confident, quite tough at the time, big left hook, dropped and beat Joshua in the amateurs.

"I think Ngannou has a decent chance of doing a number on him"

I suspect so too. Ngannou's got some very good attributes.

 

Povetkin won the first three or maybe four rounds on my card if I remember right and clipped AJ with a couple of good shots then he seemed to gas.

 

Povetkin next zero risk?. The version of Povetkin AJ beat would walked down, bash up Wilder (I mean even Duhaupas did that to Wilde and we know how Duhaupas and Povetkin ended) and stop Wilder inside 3 rounds.

Let's not forget Povetkin has a far superior record to Wilder. Povetkin even after the AJ fight went on to beat Whyte (a better career win than Wilder has), Hughie and have a draw in good fight with Hunter (although I thought Hunter won that) after.

Whytes record of beating Povetkin, Parker, Rivas and Chisora is far more impressive than Wilders most notable wins.

Even Pulev's record is just as good as Wilders.

Wilder most notable wins is on par with Chisora:

Their best wins in Ortiz and Takam are on par with each other (I don't count Chisora win over Pulev in the rematch as Pulev was robbed). Whilst Spzilka and Washington are both in their top 5 wins.

Plus specialiscises in in beating small guys? Name one guy 6'5 or bigger that was even as good as Wallin that Wilder has beaten let alone Wlad.

 

What has Wilder got to do with two old men aged over 39 when they fought Joshua - Povetkin and Pulev?

Joshua has made a career feasting on old men and zero risk opponents.

Joshua is heavyweight's answer to Connor Henn

 

You hype up Wilder as one the best (untill Parker exposed and now your claiming he's past it).

Yet down play someone like Povetkin (who Wilder ducked as he always did with big punchers) who would back up, walk down and batter Wilder. Also having a far superior records to Wilder.

Connor Benn hasn't even had a top 15 win yet and AJ is a former 2 time unified champ who cleared out beaten more top 10 opponents than Wilder and Fury combined. Ridiculous comparison.