2 or 3 weeks ago Parker was 33/1 to win on points and i thought it was too good to turn down... now about 8/1
Think Joshua will stop him late ref jumps in when both tired kinda stoppage but hope Parker takes him out just all stay humble shite and Joshua love in. Would like Parker pull it off just see hearns face lol even tho don't mind Hearn but is a bit smug with aj and thought came across bit **** at press conference
I’ve got a few bets on Parker myself, but there’s just no way Parker wins on points. It would be a bigger shock than buster Douglas IMO if he did.
Those are great odds but I feel because of the reach difference he`s got a better chance of a KO than a points win.
There will never ever be a bigger shock in boxing than Buster Douglas beating Tyson....! Unless Frankie Gavin knocks out Terence Crawford
AJ is still a favourite but there is value in those odds because the odds are a lot wider than the actual chances. AJ is about 60-40 to win. A KO for either is unlikely. This will go the full 12 and I could see a scenario where either of them can win, and I wouldnt be suprised. It comes down to tactics and who can play to their strengths the most consistently in the fight.
Not according to the odds. Joshua is currently available @ 1.1 I have seen some long shots come in but usually never under 1.2. These odd would suggest a probability of over 90% for AJ W. Again not according to the odds. The most likely outcome of this fight is a Joshua KO @ 1.33 (75% probability) Mmmm also not looking likely. To go the distance is 4.5 (not go the distance 1.16). Joshua @5.5 to win on points could have a bit of value if you believe Parker can stick in there. Bookies have a different view. Parker on points is @ 26 and KO @ 10. To translate this he has virtually no chance of winning on points and a 'punchers chance' of a KO. Of course bookies have been known to be wrong but at these prices it looks pretty conclusive.
I wasnt referring to the odds I was giving my opinion. From that the difference in my opinion and the odds, is my perceived value in betting on the fight.
That's fine as this is a forum but you claim facts such as: I think it's fair (in a betting thread) to break down what you are saying and compare it to current market prices. Your suggestion that AJ has a 60% chance (2.46) of winning is ludicrous! The most likely outcome of this fight is Joshua by KO/TKO and that is where the value lies.
That is the most likely outcome, but there is little to no value in a AJ KO. Parker KO at 117-1 is where the value is at.
You received good odds (I would price Parker KO round 6 around 50-60/1). It could certainly warrant a £1 fun pick however there is no real value as the odds of it coming in are very remote. If the fight was fought 50 times, 1 of those times Parker would KO him in the 6th. If you're happy with that probability by all means go ahead and invest.
