AJ vs Wilder Pre 2019

I favored Joshua in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and in 2021... I also favor him in 2022 if they would ever meet (don't think they will).

 

I've always favoured AJ based on styles and nothing since then has really changed my mind.

Wilder's defensive style is to use head/upper body movement and range to avoid shots, because of this it's easy to back him up into defensive positions if you dictate the pace by leading, which is why an aggressive Fury in fight 2 was able to dominate Wilder and why Washington had so much success vs Wilder by backing him up with a jab and why Ortiz out boxed Wilder for most of their fights because the fear of a counter put Wilder onto the back foot where we know he struggles.

Joshua has said in interviews he'd take it to Wilder he wouldn't risk Wilder coming back with a KO and look to take Wilder out early and that's the best tactic vs Wilder it doesn't even take much to back Wilder up as he's naturally inclined to evade rather than trade, pre Ruiz Joshua who was more aggressive would no doubt adopt this approach after a quiet opener and once Wilder is backing up fight only goes one way.

Fact is Joshua is the more skilled, more accurate puncher and he's far more likely to KO Wilder early than Wilder is likely to KO him early. Wilder isn't usually the type to end fights early with the exception of a reckless Breazeale and a shot Stiverne, Wilder usually takes several rounds to get going due to his tendency to be easily backed up, it's why he's struggled so often with guys like Molina, Szpilka etc. Joshua will get to Wilder and take him out before he gets into the fight.

 

AJ took punches from a man who hits harder than Wilder and got up off the canvas.

 

Wilder by KO.

 

That and if he wasnt 7000 years old.

 

That's true for any puncher in vs a fighter who doesn't have a granite chin. Doesn't mean it happens though. I mean Haye could KO Wlad he only needs one punch, but I wouldn't have put money on Haye beating Wlad no matter how many times they fought.

Also Wilder isn't the only puncher in there, Joshua only needs to land one good punch and he KO's Wilder too. When you have two guys with the power to KO the other it's not really a 50/50 fight because one guys namely Joshua is more likely to land his KO punch first because he's more skilled and therefore adept at setting up that KO punch. I just don't see Wilder being there long enough for him to get to Joshua, Joshua most likely KO's Wilder before Wilder can KO Joshua.

 

Ever since this matchup was first announced as being a real possibility I always gave the slight edge to Wilder. Even when the majority opinion after Fury-Wilder 2 was that Joshua would demolish Wilder in a similar fashion to Fury did, I highly doubted Joshua would be able to go in and replicate Fury's style/performance.

Both have a real possibility of winning, it's a 60-40 type of fight in favour of Wilder imo, and I give it to him largely because of his heart, chin, and explosiveness.

iirc, rankings-wise I believe I had Joshua ranked higher than Wilder in 2017-19 because he faced better opposition. Since Ruiz clobbered Joshua in New York I've had Wilder ahead

 

Fury only needed to step to his right and land his right hand at will. Normal boxing gameplan, to get normal boxing results ;against an opponent who has no real way of actually defending himself. So Joshua doesnt need to be fleet of foot. He needs to use his regualr foot work and defense. Step to his right and crack Wilders chin. If Joshua lands against an unassuming Wilder( because we all know now , he IS unassuming ) Wilder will be out cold for at LEAST 5 minutes.

 

Who has AJ ever one-punch KO'd? I've never seen it.

AJ has not KO'd anyone early since Eric Molina 5 years ago: Breazeale took him 7 rounds as did green Whyte and old Povetkin, old late sub Takam went 9.5 and would have gone 12 if not for a Matchroom stoppage, old inactive Pulev went 9, Parker went the 12 round distance, Ruiz wasn't KO'd over 19, even in the second fight when he was horribly out of shape, "Dr glass chin" at 41 years old and 17 months inactive went all but 11 rounds and Usyk beat AJ over 12.

AJ would be less aggressive than usual against Wilder because he'd be concerned about Wilder's speed and explosive power. AJ wouldn't be in range to do damage as often because Wilder is taller and has longer arms. And Wilder is physically and mentally tougher, so he's not going to be hurt or capitulate as easily as AJ will.

 

"Since his pro debut as a 23 year old, Wilder has amassed a 92.5% KO ratio across 40 fights (38 wins, 1 draw, 1 TKO loss) against 215+ lbs opponents: the highest percentage of any heavyweight champion in history (despite being outweighed in 37/40 of those fights, often by 20+ lbs and in 22 consecutive fights since May 2012, making Wilder a historically unprecedented P4P heavyweight puncher) and 18 of the KO’s came in the 1st round. Wilder was even able to land critical right hand bombs (scoring 2 KD’s) on and be given a draw against a rusty and poorly conditioned but extremely fast, agile, long and defensively skilled lineal champion Fury (257 lbs, 27-0) which shows us just how skilled he is at landing his Sunday punch. Olympian Breazeale (255 lbs, 20-1) was a tough man who took some knocking out: AJ needed more than 6 rounds and 166 punches for the referee to step in but Wilder ended the fight in the 1st round with a single punch. If it were so easy to spark Breazeale then AJ would have done so rather than wear him down with a vast accumulation of blows. The evidence tells us that Wilder's explosive one-punch power is levels above AJ's and combined with his superior speed, length, agility, stamina, durability, confidence, heart, determination, fighting instincts, experience, unconventionality, unpredictability and ease of underestimation, he would be extremely dangerous for virtually any heavyweight in history."

AJ's average decent opponent almost goes to the 10th round: Wilder is very tough and tenacious with a major deterrent in length, speed and power. AJ said he'd attack Wilder and KO him, he said he'd get a "Kronk KO" against Usyk as well. Wilder would be around for a long time in there and if it turned into a shootout, Wilder would land bombs and take the more physically and mentally fragile AJ out.