Ajays Sydney Autumn Carnival Lamb Cutlet

LUCK? LUCK ??? Noneof my horses that got done today were beaten because of luck but plenty were beaten due to jockey incompetence.

It's amazing how many jockeys fail to show inititave, following one another like sheep or sitting back and waiting for God to give their horse wings. Today saw most of these stupid dwarfs scout wide looking for better going while a couple of intelligent ones saved ground and laughed all the way to the finish line.

 

I think most of us had days like that unless you managed to snare one of the 20/1 or 40/1 shots.

Good news is that it's on again next week (or tomorrow if you're obsessive compulsive) :lama

 

RETURN: :blackeye

BANK: $600

So long as Related draws a single digit barrier and the track is on the better side of slow I'll be having a good go on him next Saturday. But because of the current predicament I'm having $100 on Related at the fixed odds price of 8/1.

Have no fear, I'm known as the "Comeback King" and it's not only because grandpa stands over me while I lay on my stomach.....

BET 1: Golden Slipper: Related $100 Win @ 8/1

TOTAL COST: $100

Related + Grandpa = :good

 

GOLDEN SLIPPER: Am currently working on the Golden Slipper and should have my selections up within a couple of hours. Will give a short write up on each runner including what horses to avoid for those interested. Approx. 8.30pm

 

GOLDEN SLIPPER PREVIEW: With showers predicted for the rest of the week the one sure bet is that the track will be severly rain affected. While barriers always play their part over the 1200m at Rosehill, runners can travel wide and win as long as they get cover, in fact there's no doubt that entering the straight jockeys will be looking to get away from the rails in search of firmer going. So how does this help find the winner?

The type of horse required has to run a strong 1200m and be physically mature enough to deal with tough race conditions endured in the Golden Slipper. They need to be able to jump and find a position whilst having enough in reserve to unleash a powerful sprint. On a wet track front runners drawn inside need not apply. Favourite Sebring can handle the wet but hasn't raced for some time and will be found wanting over the last 100m (reminds me of Assertive Lad.) Augusta Proud and Anatomica will go forward but will need to be superstars to hold of the field....Augusta Proud may just be that but I'm prepared to gamble otherwise. With 200m to travel Von Costa De Hero will be running on with Related. Coming home hard will be All American, Portillo and Burgeis.

THE FIELD:

1. All American (13) - The class horse of the field and the one to beat although the combination of his racing style and a horror draw brings him back to the field. Back him if you feel lucky. Yes.

2. Krupt (7) - Needs to find a few lengths to be competitive. No.

3. Sidereus (2) - Winkers first time in the hope of racing on the pace. Isn't strong enough to lead all the way. No.

4. Over The Wicket (6) - A tough nut and jockey Zac Purton improves his chances. Could snare a place with a little luck. Each Way.

5. Related (14) - The joker in the pack. Has only had one start (unlucky 2nd) and will have to create history to win at his 2nd race start. May have to go back from wide draw although jockey does show initiative when required. Hard To Beat.

6. Reaan (4) - Blue Diamond winner who flopped at first Sydney run. Will need to replicate B.D run to beat this field. No.

7. Von Costa De Hero (15) - May race handier than usual with winkers applied. Has been timed to perfection and showed class winning the VRC Sires Produce. Huge Chance.

8. Sebring (5) - Has all the requirements of a Golden Slipper winner including a good barrier, jockey and trainer. Will race on pace and can handle wet tracks but the slow going may catch him out due to lack of race fitness. Place.

9. Hips Don't Lie (8 ) - Has always been there abouts but hasn't shown the champion qualities required for this race. Jockey could snare a place. No.

10. Portillo (10) - Class filly backing up for third week in a row. Tough ask for a 2yr old but stable can produce miracles and she is top class. Will get back and be storming home. Good Chance.

11. Stripper - Scratched.

12. Sugar Babe (11) - Consistant filly who will run a fair race but can't beat the best of them. No.

13. Anatomica (3) - Draw well for a front runner but won't be able to hold them out over the last 150m. No.

14. Augusta Proud (1) - Had the track been firm the filly would be a near certainty from barrier No.1. Even with the rain there's still a chance this filly could destroy this field if she has recovered from her awesome Magic Millions win. Got No Idea.

15. Burgeis (16) - Outside barrier not a concern as she drops out anyway. Handles wet tracks and will be flying home late with wings. Yes.

16. She's Meaner (12) - A good little filly on her day but will find it extremely tough from a wide barrier as she likes to lead. No.

17. Sienna's Fury (9) - Inconsistant mare that looks well out of her depth although advantaged by the wet conditions. No

Reserves: Will only play their part as pests with barriers and markets having to be rearanged.

SELECTIONS:

1st: Related
2nd: All American
3rd: Von Costa De Hero
4th: Burgeis
5th: Portillo

 

FIXED ODDS: Early bird prices at good odds.

HOYSTAR $3.80

THE FUZZ $10.00

MOATIZE $14.00

MIMI LEBROCK $7.00

 

Stripper has been scratched. General Nediym filly Sienna's Fury will start from barrier 9.

Sienna's Fury does handle wet tracks and gets back in her races. While I doubt she can win I'm having a few dollars on her at 60/1...because she is the type that can cause a massive boilover.

 

:lamaCRUNCH TIME..............

$100 has already been placed on Related at 8/1 leaving $500 in the bank. Now Watch This!!!

Rosehill

R3: No.11 Moatize $20 Win
R5: No.11 Princess Coup $60 Win
R6: No.1 Racing To Win $50 Win
R7: No.1 All American $30 Win + No.7 Von Costa De Hero $30 Win
R8: No.6 Mimi Lebrock $30 Win

Sub Total $220

Caulfield

R1: No.2 Drama Club $30 Win

Sub Total $30 ($250)

Cheltenham

R1: No.3 Pipeliner $50 Win

Sub Total $50 ($300)

TOTAL $300

BANK $200

If you're looking to have a couple of small bets on a few longshots then try these at Rosehill; :good

R2: No.16 Fort 'N' Won
R3: No.16 Book Of Kells
R4: No.8 Prima Nova
R5: No.1 County Tyrone
R6: No.1 Racing To Win
R7: No.15 Burgeis
R8: No.6 Mimi Lebrock

Lay of the day R6: No.8 Weekend Hussler.


UPDATE: It's pissing down out here and the track will be chopped up by the time the Slipper is run. Below is a list of Golden Slipper horses that are bred to handle wet tracks without consideration of current form.

1. All American
2. Over The Wicket
3. Serbring
4. Portillo
5. Burgeis

This really makes things interesting. I now feel very strongly that there's only five horses that have a chance of winning the World's biggest 2yr old event with All American and Portillo looking strong. Same horses as previously selected but in different order.

1. All American
2. Related
3. Portillo
4. Burgeis
5. Von Costa De Hero....take your pick.

 

Todays Best Bet

Roshill R6: No.1 Racing To Win :smoke