As crude as Baer may have been, Povetkin doesn't employ a style that can take advantage of that. He may be more skilled in close quarters, but Baer is more powerful, more vicious and more durable and that's what's ultimately going to give him the win.
A lot of Baer's power came from selling out on huge, windmill haymakers. Povetkin, who is very durable himself, would eat alive that kind of offense with timing and precise shots. And Povetkin hits plenty hard himself and almost always punches in bunches.
I agree with this. I would add, though, that Povetkin's workrate might just see him through, as it seems to have on at least a couple of other occasions I can think of.
That may be true to some extent, but it was just a part of his image. At times he got serious, Baer was able to deliver quick and devastating punches and counters with great fluency. The Comiskey KO is a good example of this. Baer just seems like a gutsier, more ballsy fighter who would enjoy the type of fight Povetkin would force. Povetkin looked lost against Huck, who much like Baer wasn't exactly the epitome of skill and finesse but knew how to fight ugly and dirty. I'll still admit that Povetkin could very well take this with his power and combos - I just think Baer could soak up the damage more efficiently and end the fight before that happens.
OK, you're asking us to ignore the many fights where Baer wasn't entirely serious because those apparently weren't his best performances, then you bring up Povetkin's fight against Huck as proof to your stance. Some might say you are trying to have your cake and eat it, too.
I did say that I partially agree with you. Baer did often windmill his way to victory, but it should be acknowledged that he was a showman as much as a fighter, was prone to taunting his opponent and engaging recklessly but still displayed very, very good punching technique when he had to. I brought up the Huck fight because Hucks fighting style and tactics resemble Baers the most, out of Povetkins opponents.
Against Primo maybe those stick out more, but he could also deliver a lot of power with much shorter punches.