Got to go with Arguello on this one. He takes Nelson late like others have said. Great matchup though.
Arguello and Sanchez have different styles. Sanchez was a solid defensive and offensive fighter. Arguello wasn't that strong on defensive. Sanchez could adlib. Arguello toughed it out. Nelson could beat Arguello where he had trouble with Sanchez. I personally think Sanchez is the better featherweight. Arguello was a great fight though. He had power in both hands.
This fight is tighter than many would think at 126. This was definitely not the very best Arguello, which many might not realise. Excellent at this weight, but really hit his straps later on IMO. I see two eventuations. One is Nelson outhustling Alexis on his way to decision, the other is Arguello lands a bomb like the shot that Olivares and finishes him. Hard to choose. At 130 pounds i see Arguello, at his technical finest slowly but surely taking the fight from Nelson and stopping him in the mid to late rounds. Nelson has some fight in him and that's why i can't rule out a stopppage before the championship rounds.
I like Nelson's chances in this one. Arguello barely managed to get by a bantam Olivares. Against a fully fledged hard hitting featherweight, I think he gets dumped on his pants a couple of times and loses a 9-6 type decision. At 130, where Arguello was at the peak of his prime, I like him to reverse the decision in a similar fashion to how he'd lose at 126.
How would it be an upset? I think people underestimate Arguello at 126 just because they assume 130 to be his best weight. It may have been, but he was just as good a fighter at 126. Nelson was also better at 130 than 126. Arguello beats Nelson more handily than Sanchez did in my honest opinion.
Arguello, in his two biggest fights at 126, was getting outboxed and only managed to salvage one due to his punching power. I think Nelson hits harder at 126 than Ruben Olivares and also has a better chin (he has a better chin in a p4p sense too), whilst probably having near equal boxing ability to Ruben. Alexis was clearly green at 126 and whilst still excellent there he was not as good as he was at 130 where he clearly hit his straps. Nelson was better at 126 than he was at 130 I feel, more consistent and without as many lapses. Personally, I think Nelson will bully Arguello around a bit at 126. Welcome back, BTW.
Because Nelson was in his pomp at 126lbs. The Nelson who lost to Sanchez was a novice, Nelson would not peak for another four years. Arguello began his run as a Feather but peaked at 130/135 IMO.
Great post, Nelson was a better fighter full stop than Olivares was at Featherweight. Bantam is where i really like Olivares. Nelson would not have been outboxed by Ruben at 126 and i also like him to beat Danny Lopez there as well. Nelson is a great fighter who often gets a bit forgotten among the Snachez's, Pep's, Saddler's, Armstrong's etc. I reckon he gives a good account against any of em.