Alvarez vs Trout

Alvarez late stoppage for me. I don't think trout has the power to seriously hurt him and I can't see trout keeping him at bay for the full 12

 

I think this is a close fight.

Trout has REAL experience. He's been in tough fights with competent opponents who are his size. He's also rather slick and a fairly competent offensive southpaw boxer. I like his straight punches, and I like his lateral movement. Canelo's people have tried very hard to avoid putting Saul in with people who can do what Trout can do. If Austin can stay super disciplined, Alvarez is going to have some real difficulty getting him to stay still so he can load up on those big combinations.

Basically, I'm not convinced that Alvarez can win a boxing match with jabs and single shots. I haven't seen the footwork from him to consistently cut the ring, which he'll need to do.

But I still see it as a pick 'em fight, because this Canelo kid is DYNAMITE when he has a guy right in front of him, and he's whaling away. Trout could afford to let a guy like the aging Cotto pound away in the middle rounds while he got a comfortable counter punching groove going. If he does that with Canelo, he's going to get badly hurt, and it's going to happen fast.

Gun to my head, I'll take the boxer Trout, but I think Canelo is going to be a star, and he won't need Trout, who can box lazily at times, to give him too many chances to make good and do some fight changing damage.

It's slow but balanced feet against good and quick feet, and true fight changing power against precise, fast hands. Similar sized guys, pretty different styles. I LOVE this fight.

 

I think Donaire has too many dimensions and too much confidence for the rather one-note Rigo right now, but I don't foresee an entertaining fight.

Basically, Nonito is going to be hopping around, blasting in occasionally with those blazing fast single leads, while Rigo keeps his feet planted and looks for the left on the counter. Nonito will spend time hanging back looking for lazy rights for Rigo(Rigo's right hand is often rather lazy) so he can pull a big counter ala Nishioka or Montiel, but Rigo isn't that stupid and is as patient as a cobra, so that's just gonna look like a whole lot of posing.

I think Donaire takes a close decision, because he's going to be the one who looks like he's fighting, but they are going to do precious little damage to each other. The styles combine in a fashion where I don't think either guy is gonna find it easy to make anything stick: Both are natural counterpunchers, who tend to be too patient fighting other counter punchers. That indicates a lot of waiting around. Donaire will be moving and popping, though, and we both know that in a low contact, low intensity fight, that'll be enough to score the W.

 

i think canelo is overrated for what we have seen so far....but this fight confuses my thinking on that, because his handlers must be very very confident of his ability letting a golden egg like him anywhere near trout......so, maybe he's a lot better than what i think he is



*copied from another thread

 

He's wrecked every fighter he's ever faced. Eventually, you gotta let him off the leash and see what you've got. I can guarantee that is his camp's logic: Trout is coming off a big win, is probably as visible and credible as he'll ever be, and this is the time, because if your boy wins, suddenly he's the king of his weight division, and the world is at his feet.

Also, Trout is not a big puncher. He's dangerous in that he can get the best of Canelo over 12, but he is NOT dangerous in getting the bigger, younger guy out early. That helps a handler to be brave. They probably also liked how often Cotto got to work on Trout; Figure Canelo can tear him a new one if he gets the same chances.

 

good post MagnaNasakki....be interesting to see how it plays out.

 

Trout wins eight rounds but the decision winds up a draw, prompting Golden boy Promotions to promote a multi-million dollar re-match

 

The most logical way of assessing it. I've got a lingering doubt Trout will manage to maintain that type of execution over the distance, though. He's a good fighter, not great (Yes, I understand Canelo has proved far less). A stylistic advantage only takes you so far. There's going to be high drama before the final bell sounds and I just don't see Canelo going lackadaisical here. He'll need to demonstrate a higher level of endurance than he's previously displayed. Hardly out of the question for him to gradually wear and break Trout down, though it's difficult to not lean towards the Fish.

 

And, it HAS to be noted, Trout's stylistic edge does NOT completely translate. He's a great mover and a sharpshooter, but his head movement and blocking is not on par with those skills. Canelo WILL find him with power shots, and he's bigger, stronger, and sharper than Cotto at this stage.

That's what keeps it interesting. I can't give Trout a pass on just having the styles edge, because he's fought three straight guys who have had no trouble hitting him with punches he needs to not get hit with from Alvarez.

 

Win or lose, it's the type of fight that makes a young kid grow.

He can't really be protected any longer. His reputation is starting to suffer, and his last slew of tiny or aging opponents have given him nothing at all. Your skills start to stagnate without challenges. It stands to reason, very soon, he could start getting worse without tests.

This is just the right call, no matter the outcome.