An evaluation of Usyk's (and other top CW's) chances at HW

There has been a lot of discussion about this lately in various threads, usually quite off-topic, so I thought I'd share my thoughts and provide a place for respectful discussion. So, if anyone is here to troll, insult, etc., please go to the Lounge, or if not, please don't post such things on my thread!!

With that said, here's the breakdown. We'll start with:

Reasons Usyk might do well at HW

1. The HW division is open at the moment. Here's the boxrec top 10: Joshua, Povetkin, Wilder, Pulev, Ortiz, Parker, Hammer, Jones, Breazeale, Scott. I'd argue that the last four are no way near as talented as Usyk and he'd be the favourite to beat them. And the Ring top 10: Fury, Klitschko, Wilder, Pulev, Ortiz, Joshua, Parker, Ruiz Jr, Whyte, Breazeale, Miller. Better than boxrec but still not an awe-inspiring top 10.

2. There is no dominant champion at this point in time, and you can make an argument that all the champions are flawed (not saying Usyk would beat them, just that no one has proven they're elite at this point in time):

2a. Joshua: hasn't faced anyone elite yet. Stiff, and drops his right hand a lot - could be vulnerable to a southpaw.

2b. Wilder: also hasn't faced anyone elite. Shows a lack of boxing skill most of his fights. Question marks about his chin. Szpilka, who is about Usyk's size and far less talented, was outboxing Wilder for the majority of their fight.
2c. Parker: he's my favourite, so I don't really want to say anything negative about him (!), but if he doesn't hurt or KO Usyk he's getting outboxed. Usyk isn't much smaller anyway. Parker also doesn't have as much power as the above two, which could be a key factor against Usyk.

2d. Wlad, Ortiz, etc. are old and likely won't be around when Usyk moves up anyway.

3. Usyk was an excellent amateur and was able to handle the super-heavies there. In addition, he did much better at the higher weights against bigger opponents than against smaller opponents at lower weights. Now, amateur boxing does not correlate perfectly with pro boxing, but it is a reasonable indication. The following were all excellent amateur boxers: Rigo, Ward, Golovkin, Lomachenko, and even Anthony Joshua and Floyd Mayweather Jr all won medals at the Olympics too.

4. His last two opponents are underrated because visually they are small. Hunter, for example, stopped Andy Ruiz Jr, arguably a top 10/15 HW, in the amateur's. So he's clearly a dangerous fighter if he can stop Ruiz Jr, who Parker was unable to KO, with am' gloves and shorter fights.

5. History suggests that the top cruisers can be a force at HW, e.g. Haye, Holyfield. Also, recent history is good for the cruisers too: Huck-Povetkin, Briedis-Charr, Mchunu-Chambers, etc. So if Usyk can prove that he's the top cruiser, there's no reason that he can't be successful at HW. See point 2 on the other side though.

Reasons Usyk might not do well at HW

1. Usyk's style is quite open; he does get hit on his (apparently good) chin and is willing to get hit in order to get hits of his own in, and he starts slowly. Good as his chin is, can it handle someone like Anthony Joshua's offense in the early rounds? This also establishes a stylistic consideration: Usyk would appear to match-up best against those HWs who don't have enormous power.

2. Historically, although the best cruisers can be a force at HW, they lack the power and size to be dominant. This would seem to put an upper limit on Usyk's success unless he can break that mould.

3. Usyk doesn't have huge power, which is usually required for a cruiserweight to move up successfully. I personally think his power is underrated as in big fights he boxes and moves instead of setting his feet and punching, but in any case he's not a huge puncher.

4. Usyk needs to prove himself further in the CW division, especially against big, powerful punchers like Gassiev and Briedis.

Conclusion

The four possible outcomes are (with the two most likely outcomes in the middle IMO):

1. Usyk is not even a top 3 CW, and/or Usyk gets beaten by fringe HWs or journeymen.

2. Usyk is a (or the) top CW, but never moves up, or does not seriously contend at HW when he does move up.

3. Usyk has success in the HW division, and even wins a belt or two against the right opponent.

4. Usyk moves up and dominates the HW division

As demonstrated by the above analysis, 2. is the logical, safe prediction; but there are some good reasons to believe that 3. might be possible and in my humble opinion neither of these opinions ought to be ridiculed. Usyk is unlikely to "dominate" the HW division (4.), but on the other extreme, he ought to be easily favoured against the fringe contenders and below (1.).

 

I did not mean that in the sense that Usyk walks through his opponents, I agree that "he is mover who has excellent boxing boxing IQ and skills."

But Usyk does get hit quite a bit, while he hits his opponents even more. Watch his fight with Hunter, or with Joyce in the WSB, and even though he won both convincingly, he still took a good number of hard shots.