Please add how you feel the match would play out in the early stages, mid-rounds and late in the fight.
Toney was inconsistent and a little green @ 160. It's hard to pick him over Hagler, although he did have a size advantage as he was naturally the heavier guy who made 160 under different rules. I would go with Hagler by decision, with his jab being the key. Toney is best when guys come at him, so Hagler would probably box him and use the ring and circle him.