Andre WARD vs. Chad DAWSON - Analysis and Prediction Thread

I already posted in SJS's thread so all I'll add is that despite it seeming obvious that the weight could harm Dawson,I have a sneaky feeling it could actually work in his favour if he's not too drained on the Friday and can replenish well.
He also has Scully,who I think is a better weapon than anything he carries himself.
But I still think Ward can neutralise any opponent available at present.

 

Andre Ward is going to lhw, so the fact he is taking the best lhw in the world and draining him shows alot about him. Maybe it will be at a catchweight. Dawson has to know fighting that low will hurt him.

 

It's at 168 cause Dawson challenged him @ that weight.

 

Honestly, Dawson doesn't do well with movement. He really does not. He's a bit robotic in his approach. That added to the possible weight drain could really work against Chad.

On the other hand, Chad can be a wonderful counter puncher at times and can most certainly catch Ward in one of his rushes, but the window is going to be very small.

I'm really going to have to reserve my judgement till I see how Dawson looks @ 168. I'm favoring Ward right now by a very clear UD.

 

I've wanted to see Ward up against a physically superior fighter. I just don't see Dawson being healthy enough at that weight. Andre needs to start fast and test his stamina. Chad needs to slow the pace and stay on the outside.

 

Dawson weakness. He is predictable with his right hand, he's need the use left-cross more. especially the straight-left. Dawson is a right handed southpaw. The reason why Hopkins wasn't hit so much is because he used footwork to circle to Chad's right and force him to use his left hoping to get Dawson off-balanced. Therefore he neutralized Dawson's jab, but in doing so Hopkins was open to the left-cross. It was really a close fight I had it 5-4-3. I had Dawson winning by one round, it was a very close fight, some of the rounds could have went either way. Also if it's at 168, I wonder if Dawson will be at 100% against Ward.

Ward''s weakness. Against Dawson is he is not as big, not as fast, and that will go against him. If Dawson is pumping out jabs and left-cross it will be long night for Ward

 

I'm still skeptical that Dawson can actually make 168, he's a good size LHW. But a 175, I'd still favor Ward. He's probably physically stronger than Chad even at that weight and he could make the fight into a grinding war, and keeping in mind Chad can get mentally weak, Ward could pull out an ugly decision.

 

The problem with Dawson is that he is constantly switching trainers. Had Dawson stayed with Steward he would have fought better against Hopkins. It's not to say Scully is a bad trainer, it's just that Scully doesn't have a full evaluation of Dawson, and he was preparing him against a boxer (Hopkins) who had a really good team. Hopkins had a really good gameplan against Dawson, they studied him well. Also it helps that Steward emphasizes on a strong cross-punch something he was working on with Dawson.

A change in trainers can be a good or bad thing. Remember when Dawson switched from Floyd Sr. to Eddie Muhammad, he didn't look too good against Glen Johnson in the first fight. Once Scully gets a better assessment of Dawson's strengths and weakness, Chad will fight much better.

 

I think Ward is going to be too fluid for him. I imagine him switching between staying out of range to circle him, having the superior ring generalship to Dawson's efficient but sometimes stiff and slow-paced rhythm of movement, and exploding with bursts of combinations on the inside. He'll close the range with his quick hands and incoming counters well and crowd Dawson, whose long arms will be caught flapping outside while Ward goes to work with short punches to the body and head. Ward will be physical, push Dawson back, and make the pace favor him. Dawson's best bet is to counter and dictate the range and also try to catch Ward on his way out, but ultimately I think Ward will make the fight his fight and wear him down, making him timid and unable to think as clearly as the rounds go by.

Wide decision for Ward.

 

I agree with a lot of what you say but this is Chad's second spell with John Scully.I'm guessing John knows him as well as anyone,and I'm betting that JS will be demanding 100% at all times,which I think could be the saviour of Chad's carrer.
I'm pretty sure he knows Chad's strength and weaknesses inside out.

 

We all know Dawson has no inside game, Ward takes it to him and takes his heart just like Pascal did.

 

No ****ing way either fighter gets a knockout in this one. The safe bet is the over.

 

Ward takes this fight at both 168 and 175. Someone has said that Dawson handled BHOP so he can handle Ward. What kind of asinine bull**** comment is that. Ward is a clean fighter who doesn't fake ****, he's also just about 20 years younger as well.