I expect Ward to win on points unanimously. However, we're going to learn some more about Ward this fight. In the Super 6, and his fight against Sakio Bika, he didn't fight someone like Dawson(that speed combined with that range combined with his overall ability). So there's a chance that it might take Ward some ad******g. Ironically, Dawson had this problem against Pascal. He had just spent a couple years fighting Johnson and Tarver exclusively and then when in the ring with Pascal just seemed stunned by Pascal's speed. At any rate, it's in Oakland and its at 168and Ward just seems like a much more focused guy. Gotta go with Ward. Hopefully Ward brings out the best in Dawson as well.
The only two scenarios I see playing out are Ward by decision or Dawson by KO. Dawson needs to let his hands go, hopefully when he feels Ward has no power he will do so (for the fans sake). I believe this fight will be boring as hell with Ward taking a comfortable decision.
And Dawson is arguably the best fighter he can face at 168/175. My thoughts are, if Ward wins a lopsided UD as most seem to think they will put in down to Gad Chad being drained. So then what does Ward do? For me he has two options to silence his critics: 1) Go to 175 and beat Dawson for the light heavyweight championship (possibly in Dawson's back yard). However if it's a boring fight for the casual fans as most seem to think it is going to be, there will be no demand to see it. 2) Drop down to 160 and challenge Sergio Martinez (assuming he beats Jr), then he's technically doing the same as Dawson's been asked. I would personally love to see the later,
If anybody has the tools to beat Ward, it's Bad Chad; Bigger, lankier, maybe even a hair faster, all in addition to being a very skilled boxer. But it ain't gonna' happen. In my eyes, Ward is as mentally tough, knowledgeable and crafty as a mid-40s B-Hop, but in a 28 y/o body with the attendant reflexes, speed and stamina. Andre will box in such a way as to frustrate Dawson and then take advantage of the mistakes produced by the frustration which will lead to more frustration etc. etc., in a self perpetuating loop that ends with S.O.G. winning a clear UD. :bbb Really looking forward to this fight.
@ 168 in Oakland, taking Dawson's (lack of) power into concideration there's no question who will win this scrap. @ 172 at some neutral venue this would have been a serious 50/50 bout imo, but not in this case.
Dawson will be a "beast" @168lbs... I look for Chad never to allow Ward on the inside by using his reach. I'm A Ward guy all day, But I ain't gonna lie & say this wont be a hard fight.