A little part of me thinks it could be another Ruiz part 1 scenario. But without AJ first knocking down Tua! But i don't see Joshua taking him lightly, he's not going to go Gung ho, trying to knock him out. He'll fight cautious but do enough to get a close decision. But he can't take his eyes off the ball against this fella.
Joshua on points. Tua has a punchers chance. At times I question Tua's toughness. He sort of shut down vs Byrd, and Lewis. Maskaev had him beat until he gassed late.
With Tua's career done and dusted, and Joshua's only half-way, I'll lean slightly towards Tua by KO. The next five years could make me look silly but, hey... I'm a secondary school teacher... Looking a complete fool in front of people and being considered a clown is a big part of my day job.
Joshua though very overrated by some on this site should win this fight handily. The only fight I saw Tua push himself was the Ibeaubuchi fight. (That vs of Tua stops Joshua) but on most occasions if he didn't get his opponent early, he got lackadaisical and coasted, even knowing he was behind on the scorecards. Joshua wins against Tua by UD if he fights smart.
Tua was deathly allergic to lateral movement. Even the basic gameplan of the second Ruiz fight should serve well for Joshua
Tua was not as well rounded as Ruiz who could box at mid range as well as unleash fast combos up close. Ruiz also has power in both hands. Chin id say is somewhat even and both have surprisingly good stamina for such heavy men. The only thing Tua has over Ruiz is better defense and more raw power in his left hook. So I really don't get how Tua can win this since he's shorter and slower than Ruiz. He also has less heart. Joshua has a few scary moments getting rocked, but after a few solid right hands and uppercuts, Tua would mentally check out and lose on points. Joshua is a very mentally mature boxer who doesn't take unnecessary risks nowadays.
I see a not inconsiderable possibility for a Tua - John Ruiz scenario...maybe 35% so: - early Knockout Tua ~35% - mid round stopage for Joshua ~40% - Joshua on points ~25%