Nah, there's little going on here (I'm a decade long stoner, how good d'ya think my memory is mate?! ;-)) and I'm not saying 'Gatti didn't always fight world class opposition' in saying he struggled against, and even lost to, fringe world class operators.
I can't believe people still fall for this. When the fight was first announced almost everyone groaned, it was seen as yet another 'ok' fight. It's many years too late, and against an opponent that presents almost no stylistic challenges. Roll on a few months later and the hype train has yet again managed to cloud people's opinions and some people actually genuinely believe that Cotto is a going to present any challenge. He has no single physical, technical, or stylistic attribute that he can leverage to gain any advantage in this fight. Floyd has an answer to everything Cotto has, and it will be as plain as day that that's the case when fight time comes around. Cotto will look like he is boxing in molasses.
The weight is an important factor here, 154 suits Cotto. His new trainer Pedro Diaz is an absolute machine. No way is Cotto shot. I fully expect Floyd to win, but not without a few uncomfortable moments. I reckon the last few rounds before Floyd stops him will be like the Gatti fight. If Floyd wins easy, people will say Cotto is shot. If Floyd wins in a tough close fight' people will say Floyd is over the hill If Cotto wins, people will say Floyd was overrarted. Some people are just never happy.
While I would love Cotto to win, I think his chances of doing so are in the slim to none range. Cotto just doesn't have the engine (like Castillo) or one-punch power (like Mosley) required to knock Mayweather out of his zone and drag him into deep water. I'm predicting a boring one-sided points decision to Mayweather. At some point in the middle rounds Cotto will realise he's ****ed as far as winning is concerned, then ease off on his offence, and Mayweather will be content to pick up the rounds and let Cotto cross the line at the end of the 12th.
I don't really give him a chance. I'm expecting Floyd to do it comfortably. But I don't expect a stoppage.
To beat Floyd you need hand speed faster than his reaction time. Cotto does not. Let's hope he puts up a tough fight, this got Floyd points win all over it.
Mayweather's two closest fights have been against Jose Luis Castillo and he wasn't fast. DLH ran him pretty close as well I suppose (he had a decent bit of speed I suppose).