Anyone here seriously thinks Cotto can beat Geale?

No. First of all, I am not god. If I would knw every boxing outcome, I would be rich. My predictions in the past were actually quite good, some people may remember that I picked Kovalev to win within 3rounds and I belonged to the 5% who knew TT is going to beat Price.

I have to admit, I never saw much of Cotto. I am from Europe, we never watched the smaller guys fight. He lost to Trout .. Austin Trout. He was cherrypicked by Martinez even though his team knew he was shot ad his knees were done. So there was a reason they were still confident enough. He never won against an elite fighter. His best win was a past prime Shane Mosley (if I remember right).

I was sure cherrypicking is going wrong right now and Geale is going to win. I bet all the vcash before I knew about the ridiculous catchweight. This Geale was not the Geale we knew from his previous fights.