As of a couple of weeks ago, he was way over weight, close to 190, if I remember correctly. That's not a good sign.
Tarver needs to score heavy damage early to stand a chance. Against Woods his stamina looked really poor. Luckily Woods gave a lousy performance that night.
I'm picking Tarver to win via TKO...everybody says he's washed up but he looked great against Woods. Look, I can't stand Tarver but I think when he's motivated, he's a damn good fighter. Plus, I think Dawson is highly overrated and his glass jaw is gonna get shattered. I personally thought Glenn Johnson beat him but judging a fight is always subjective.