Anything can happen but ...

You know. I admire the fact that you respected Antonio Margarito. A great analysis and I could not have said it better myself.

Joshua Clottey is a smudge slower//slightly less heavy handed Miguel Cotto.

To be honest... I cannot see a better technician losing this type of fight. However we'll have to wait and see.

It's determination and physicality versus mentality and skill.

 

Half of me 100% agrees with this statement. This is what that half thinks:


THe more I think about this fight the more I've come to the realizatoin that its not going to live up to the hype and that its going to be a world class schooling by Cotto. Pretty sure he's going to cruse to a wide UD with maybe one or two tough spots...maybe. There is going to be a real difference in skills when these two meet on saturday night.

Everyone that has gotten to Cotto has been fast. Cotto actually has a very good defense when he's defending. The times where he has gotten hit were when both he and the other guy were throwing a punch and the other guys punch got there first. I don't think that Margo's gonna be able to make that happen. And I'd have to believe that Cotto is slick enough to handle Margo's pressure.

Sure he might be hurt once or twice. Most fighters are in a fight. I think more then anything the fight will lack the type of ebs and flows, which create real drama. So even if MArgarito does well it'll be like watching a fight with the same story every round. Fighter "A" has his moments but never does enough to win the round....round after round after round. Fighter "B" wins a clear descision.

Cause really thats the best case senario for Cotto and I have a feeling he is head and shoulders enough above the much slower Margarito to be able to pull it off.

I will say this I don't think I have actually seen Cotto in there with a really good pressure fighter. All of the really good fighter's he's faced have been boxers or boxer punchers. He hasn;t faced a truely good puncher or a truely good pressure fighter. The truely good pressure fighters are guys like Chavez or Duran, who can add speed and good boxing ability to their pressure game. I don't think Margo's gonna have the goods to put it on him though.

 

Looking at their key opponents (Cotto has Mosley, Judah, Quintana, Torres while Margarito has Cintron, Williams, Clottey, Santos) and how they handle them, I'm leaning to pick Margarito as the winner in this fight. Cotto looked vulnerable at times against Mosley, Judah and Torres while Margarito handled his key opponents just like his other fights. Even in his losing efforts to Williams and Santos, Margarito didn't looked like a real loser.

I've seen Mosley hammering Cotto with right hooks and uppercuts, Judah troubling Cotto with his speed (tho Margo is a turtle) and Torres wobbling Cotto with a power punch. Margarito can do all of that minus the speed. Margarito also looks like so obssessed with this fight that he will give it all. I'm worried about Cotto's chances in this fight.

Margarito just need to match Cotto punch for punch in the early rounds for I can clearly see him controlling the later rounds.

Margarito by a late TKO/KO.

 

Cotto late stoppage, Margarito isn't on his level and this will be proven, get all of your v-cash on Cotto :good

 

The other half of me thinks this:

Cotto is a truely great pressure fighter. In the mold of Chavez and Duran. He has great boxing ability which he mixes in with his pressuring style. He has a solid frame and every punch he throws takes something from you. As i've mentioned above the top level fighters that Cotto has fought (Malignaggi, Quintana, Judah, Mosely) have all been boxers or boxer punchers. He has always matched up with them physically and has done well against them because the boxer verse pressure fighter style match up is one which favours the pressure fighter.

Against MArgarito however it would appear that Cotto has forfeited his strongest style. He is conceding the role of the pressure fighter to Margarito. When too pressure fighters meet logic dictates that the fighter that is better able to execute his style is the victor. So in essence by electing to be the boxer Cotto is saying that of the two of them Margarito is the one that can better execute that pressuring style.

In electing to box however Cotto is creating a style dynamic which favours Margarito (a.k.a. pressure fighter beats Boxer). If this is the case then MArgarito already has the advantage going in. And he will win the fight so long as he has fast enough feet and accurate enough/fast enough punches to effectively pressure and damage Cotto.

So the dilemma for me is how to tell whether or not MArgarito has the goods to do this. As I've stated above part of me doesn't think he does. I watch the guy and he's a slow ass *******. But he's effective.

To beat Cotto Margo doesn't need to be a great pressure fighter just a dam good one.

The part of me that thinks Margo will at least make this a close fight things that based on how long he's been a champion and how well he dealt with Cintron (a style match up that traditionally would favour the puncher) you'd have to think that he is at the very least Dam good at what he does. Right? And therefore good enough to make the inherent advantages that Cotto has conceded work for him. Right?