Look, I like CA but he has literally lost every time in a big fight. Big, heart, big punch, but zero defence and a knack for losing in bigger fights. Stiverne can match his punch, but has much better fundamentals and has more defence and a better ring IQ. Outside of a KO, I don't see how Arreola can win this.
Yeah, this whole thing about Arreola's weight is a bit of a smokescreen. He's about the same, even with the pounds off. He still has quick, powerful hands but his biggest issue is the crude technique and zero defence and zero thinking in the ring.