As much as fans want this fight, who actually favors Cotto to beat PBF and why?

Here's my honest analysis (and unpopular analysis I might add) of Mayweather vs Cotto. It's long, I know. Just don't crucify me for it

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Technical pressure is the way to beat Floyd. Nobody in the welterweight division brings technical/educated pressure the way Cotto does. He's better than Jose Luis Castillo in this regard and a far more versatile fighter - he's got more facets to his game than does Castillo. Hatton brought a swarming style with mostly roughhousing tactics, so it's stupid to compare the two as some do. Floyd has always fared better against swarmers who leave themselves open coming in as seen not only in his fight with Hatton, but also Jesus Chavez.

His jab alone could offset Floyd, who has shown liabilities against right jabs at welterweight and at 150. Even in the Hatton fight, Ricky was timed him with a couple jabs early on. Floyd would lead with a left hook and Hatton would duck it or take a step back and time him with his own jab. But Ricky doesn't consistantly throw the jab. When he did lead with it, those were the instances where he was able to get inside without taking crisp countershots in the process. The problem with Hatton is his failure to work inside. I was screaming at the television, telling him to let his hands go with short combinations to the body and the head. But he holds, grapples, and throws an occasional punch.

A thing I noticed in the De La Hoya fight, is that when Floyd is pressured by somebody who leads with a good left jab, he backs straight into the ropes. When he's on the ropes, he picks his spots and can be very sneaky. But his punch output also decreases which means he can be roughed up and outworked.On the ropes, I think Cotto would put him into somewhat of a shell. I believe that Cotto's activity and power would catch the attention of the judges in these occurances.

Cotto has underrated speed of foot. He's not as fast as Hatton on his feet, but he is far more steady, intelligent, and consistant in his approach. No doubt he'd find a way to close the gap and make Floyd fight because Floyd doesn't give the same movement he used to at 130 or 135. As I mentioned before, on the inside, he is very fluid and throws short, accurate combinations upstairs and downstairs. Hatton, on the other hand, holds and grapples, which is effective at 140, but not against fighters at 147 whom he does not hold a strength advantage over. Cotto is more accurate and calculating than De La Hoya is on the inside. De La Hoya will let his hands go in flurries to catch the attention of the judges, but he's not as consistent as Cotto in close (because he lacks Cotto's stamina), nor is Oscar as accurate. Oscar is actually more of an outside fighter. He's never been as good when he has to bring the fight to somebody.

People underrate Cotto's handspeed and timing too. He's mixes it up real well and is more unpredictable in his offensive attack than most give him credit for. He has the ability to change up the trajectory and angles of certain shots to catch faster fighters. He showed this against Quintana and Zab Judah. I don't think there's a ribcage that Cotto can't find.

Cotto's defense is good enough for him not to get "check-hooked" or embarassed with right hand leads. His high guard prevents this as does the jab on the way in. Floyd would definitely hit him though with uppercuts and straight shots up the middle (probably stun him a few times), as Judah was able to do. But the lack of combinations at 147 from Floyd wouldn't be enough from keeping Cotto off of him or enough to make Cotto fight a tactical fight on the outside where he would be at a disadvantage. Floyd is stronger than he's given credit for, but he's definitely not as strong as Cotto. This means that, unlike Mosley, Floyd wouldn't get Cotto on the backfoot, looking to counter.

Simply put, Cotto has all the tools to beat Floyd in my view. And I don't say this because I'm a big fan of Cotto. I call fights how I see them and I've never gone against Floyd in the past.

Floyd would have to fight with him for most of the fight he would get outworked, outmuscled, and roughed up. Floyd would take rounds based on his counter punching and clean punching. I see a 116-112, 115-113 type decision on the scorecards.

If this fight happens in mid/late 2009, I think this works to Cotto's advantage because he's getting better and getting valuable experience, wheras Floyd's reflexes and speed are steadily decreasing (it's not rapid at all, but it's apparent when you compare the current 147 pound version with the versions from the lower weights).

With all of that said, is Floyd capable of winning this? Absolutely, he's a truly great fighter.

 

:rofl:roflatsch

Corrales
Augustus
Chavez
Castillo
NDou
Baldomir
DLH
Hatton



My personal pick, I would pick Mayweather by UD, 116-111, 8 rounds to 4, with one kdown.

 

I've asked huki about this fight before, and he PM'd me his thoughts. Apologies to him for not asking whether or not I can post this beforehand.

Again, the following is...
huki's thoughts on Mayweather-Cotto
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Right now I think Cotto should be favored in this fight at least 60/40.. probably more. I can't get into too much of the deep analysis about the matchup because I haven't watched either of them in a while, but Cotto definitely has what it takes to beat him. He has a very good, sharp jab and all of his punches are precise, accurate, and have a lot of pop. His combination punching and body attack will be very affective against Floyd and he has the relentless, calculated aggression along with the stamina/punch-output to break him down mentally/physically in a way that none of Floyd's last 10 opponents have, outwork Floyd, and take rounds that Floyd lands more clean shots in. Floyd will land shots on him, perhaps even stun him in moments, but he won't be able to potshot his way to a close win and Cotto's offensive attack will be too much for him at this point.

On top of all of this, you have to think about where they are in their careers right now and when you consider that, Cotto has to be favored. Floyd is fading, not a lot.. but he's fading a bit and he's way past his best weight. If you look back at his career after 135, he hasn't faced one elite fighter. Maybe you could consider Judah elite, but Judah was a much different style and situation. It's been over 5 years since that rise in weight and people are so used to him winning that they automatically think Cotto is just another opponent he'll beat. But Cotto isn't just another opponent. He's an extremely hungry, very consistent, mentally tough fighter who is able to adapt well and become better fight after fight. For this superfight, we will see a Cotto at his 100% best and most motivated. We will not see anything new from Floyd, he trains 100% for every fight and still doesn't impress. The KO victory for against Hatton seemed to erase the fact that he had trouble with Hatton for most of the fight. Hatton, who is a 140 pounder and is an overall B level fighter with major stylistic advantages should not be giving the #1 P4P fighter in the world so much trouble. Against Cotto, Floyd is facing a larger, stronger opponent who's defense is far from elite, but who's an overall elite fighter and a true 147 pounder, stylistic threat to Floyd, and is about to enter his prime. It would suck, to say the least if this match doesn't happen, but I think it eventually will and the longer the wait is, the more Cotto should be favored. Floyd must take this fight if he really cares about improving his legacy, I would give him respect whatever the outcome, but if he actually managed to beat Cotto it would raise my opinion of him greatly. Also, Cotto beating Floyd would be a huge moment in modern boxing history and would be very good for the sport.

That looks like a lot of text.. I think I'll make a thread about Floyd-Cotto pretty soon after I rewatch their fights. Most people aren't looking at this matchup seriously and they think Cotto is another hyped up threat to beat him the way others have been in the past. He obviously isn't.

 

Castillo beat him the first fight, the second fight was a close win for Mayweather IMO. You can say Castillo has a better chin than Cotto, but Mayweather isn't the biggest puncher in the world, so I dont think that really plays a part in this fight.

C. Hernandez was a good fighter, def not as good as Cotto though. Cotto is naturally bigger plus he is a better infighter as well as body puncher. He'd put hurt on Mayweather way worse than Hernandez did.

Hatton, well he was a one trick pony unable to adjust, you have to make adjustments to Floyd or you'll get picked apart. I don't really need to delve into Hatton since I'm sure we all saw the fight, but he used ineffective pressure, just bulling his way in, not using a jab and really much head movement (except the first maybe 3 rounds) and once he blew his load, it was over for him.

Chavez was doing well against Floyd, but Floyd had advantages in size, strength, and Chavez during the mid rounds was just getting countered silly, something I think would be more difficult on Cotto, because Floyd doesn't have those advantages against Cotto and I think Cotto would hurt Floyd to the body and make him pay more than Chavez was able to.

 

Think Cotto will shade it

 

Baldomir? Hatton? Augustus? Oh yes.. same type of animal as Cotto.

But either way, Mayweather has struggled with pressure in the past, if you can't see that then it's obvious what I'm dealing with. Cotto is far bigger, physically stronger, and will apply pressure a lot better than a smaller Castillo or a faded DLH had.

And if my memory serves me correctly, wasn't Mayweather once rocked by Corley? :think

 

Very very close fight in my opinion, i side slightly towards floyd but for me the key for cotto to win is two fold, one his jab, if he can dictate behind the jab and then go to work on the body from behind this it gives him a great chance and 2 to work on his defence, when he was coming up he had a tight defence at the moment he leaves himself open alot to counter shots, and floyd straight right and uppercut will be big shots for him in this fight.

Like i say i slightly favour PBF but am no means certain he wins

 

Not only would I favor Cotto, but I would be very surprised if Mayweather managed to beat him. I rewatched some of their fights last week and I'm even more convinced now that Cotto would tear him apart (I see it as 80/20 now). The longer Floyd waits the more Cotto should be favored.

Brooklyn's analysis is great and I can't see how anybody could argue with it. Cotto should be favored. Floyd isn't some kind of unbeatable fighter. At 147, I don't think he's even a great fighter. He's on the decline, he's inactive, and Cotto will be way too much for him. People that are thinking this would be another easy Mayweather win are either underrating Cotto or are not watching Floyd's recent fights closely.

 

Floyd KO

 

Right now it's 25-23 Floyd. That proves it then. No real reason for Floyd to fight him - Money already won. On to Floyd-Oscar II and Floyd-Hatton II!!!!! Right guys?

 

i like cotto. but dont think he can handle floyds speed.
floyd is to hard to hit rolling away from punches and counters. i'd love to see this fight but favor floyd.

 

I can't belief the results of the poll.

People will be surprised when that fight happens and Mayweather beats Cotto easier than he beat Hatton.

 

I wouldn't say I favour him, however I give him a more realistic chance than anybody has had for a long time, due to his suspect matchmaking

 

as much as i like cotto&want him to beat floyd,i go for mayweather by close decision