As the fight approaches, let us again discuss why I narrowly think Usyk beats Joshua

Look, Usyk achieved everything in cruiserweight. Since it is obvious that he will not be successful in heavyweight, what are the options left? Retirement.

Why would he go back to cruiserweight where he had already become the undisputed champion? He has nothing to prove there. And why would he stay in heavyweight? He won't be able to beat AJ and Fury.

 

Go watch the match again, it is on YouTube.

 

He already is successful in heavyweight: he get paychecks for Witherspoon and Chisora fights.
Good choice, for these fights good paychecks and easier fights than he might get in CW.
Chisora: he started to gas after 4 rounds. Paycheck: very good. What if he had Dorticos not Chisora? Dorticos will not gas even after 11 rounds and paycheck most likely had been lesser than for Chisora fight.
Whiterspoon: looks that he get for fight vs out of retriement uncle more than he had get for fight vs 33 y.o prime shape Briedis version in WBSS I.

There we see that he already was successful with his choice. Pro boxing is business to earn money.

 

I think AJ:s physical advantages will make it difficult for Usyk to get off as many punches. I think it more will be a case for Usyk of trying to counter and find his spots. You always have to be careful when you fight a taller man with AJ:s quickness and power.

 

I can absolutely see Usyk making Joshua miss. Embarrassing him with angles and movement.

I just see Joshua being able to keep Usyk on the outside and at the end of his reach. To win enough rounds. Fury beat Wlad boxing extremely cautiously and I expect Joshua to be as cautious with Usyk

 

Usyk is the same height and reach as Parker. But much better counter.

 

Joshua won't get any credit after he knocks Usyk out.

 

This is an intriguing match-up.
Joshua’s size should give him the edge, but we saw what Ruiz did.
Usyk could easily confuse & land with his speed (if he doesn’t come in too heavy).
AJ seems to have found a plan B (which he desperately needed) in the Ruiz ll & Pulev fights.
If AJ can improve his gas tank he should win via late stoppage, maybe points.
Usyk will have to swarm all over Joshua for 6 rounds to get the win, as he isn’t winning if it goes the distance.

 

I agree. Usyk will all of a sudden be an old CW that struggled with an even older Chisora.

 

I've only seen him display that after being tagged hard and taken out of his comfort zone. And it was only against Ruiz that he didn't recover. The two fights where he has gone the distance he hasn't looked tired.

I think Usyk has to hurt him, at least seriously trouble him with his punches, to make him tired.

 

And much faster feet

 

You don't get up to 900 punches in a fight by countering, you must lead a lot to reach such a count.