I slightly favour and am picking Ward to win. But if he wins he almost surely wins by decision. And the odds at about +110 for Ward by decision reflect that. Taking Kovalev outright I don't think offers great value either. But what really surprises me is that he is only 2/1 to win by knockout. Yes if he catches Ward flush Kovalev can definitely hurt and indeed knockout Ward. But he has to find Ward cleanly to do that. And even if he does Ward has never wanted a fight more and we can be sure he'll try to get up and fight back. Trinidad knocked down and kicked Reid's ass but Reid lasted 12 rounds. I just think 2/1 in such an even matchup is an insult to Ward's defence, ring IQ, and at least survival tactics. On the other hand, if we're looking for value Kovalev by decision looks really tempting at 5/1. First, we can surely imagine Ward trying to spoil to stay away from Kovalev's power. Maybe he spoils and avoids Kovalev's power but not well enough to land much and the fight's close and goes the distance. Second, I think Kovalev's best chance to win is by boxing on the outside behind his jab. If he exposes himself on the inside he gives Ward his best chance. Kovalev and JDJ surely know this. Maybe Kovalev sets up a knockout behind his jab and combinations, but I wouldn't be shocked if Kovalev is even more disciplined than usual. He could control most rounds but never look to land for a knockout at all, like against Hopkins. I also think, as big a puncher as Kovalev is power is overrated in boxing. Kovalev got a lot of knockouts simply because he was better than his opponents. And, if you lean towards the over 9.5 rounds, rather than -250 the decision props are going to carry more value. If it lasts 12 it would likely be a boxing match most of the way. How would each guy win a boxing match? If you like Ward to win, you have to suspect he'll slow down the fight and only land a few punches more each round. Would you really want to be on Ward by decision at basically even money considering his style? While if Kovalev sticks to boxing he'd be throwing more punches, especially more jabs, and he'd bank rounds more clearly than Ward would if Ward wins a decision. If Kovalev wins by decision it should be because he boxes the kind of fight that gives him a way better chance than 5/1 of winning by decision! Again, gun to my hand I'm taking Ward. But in as close a fight as this is can either guy really only have a 5/1 chance to win a decision? I think Kovalev definitely has a better than 5/1 chance of winning a decision. I wasn't going to bet and I won't be going big, but doesn't this look like worth a play?
You basically summed up what I was thinking too. Ward is the safer bet but if I had some money to throw around then I'd pick Kovalev by decision. Power doesn't just knock people down or out it also wins rounds. Kovalev has enough power and ring presence to pressure Ward into being extra cautious about when and how often he throws which could lead to Kovalev putting rounds in the bank due to more activity. Also if you're one of those people who think Kovalev can land clean on Ward as easy as he can against other fighter than you have to take into account knockdowns. I myself think Kovalev might get one knockdown but I wouldn't be surprised if Ward stays on his feet the entire fight.
Kovalev is not winning a decision he has to win by KO. You cant outhustle Ward for the majority of the fight it will never happen. Betting on Kovalev decision is like betting on Ward stoppage it will never happen.
That would make sense if Kovalev knocked out everyone he fought. But he's had to go the distance a few times. And who did he go the distance against? Hopkins and Chilemba--his opponents who were the closest stylistically to Ward. And Ward's better. I'd simply be pretty surprised if this doesn't go the distance. I won't however be surprised if either guy wins. Kovalev certainly can win by decision.
