Bet-wise, is Bivol a good choice ?

Good bet if at least one of the judges wasn't already bought...almost guaranteed. Which says a lot about the state of boxing.

I'd say Bivol can win 8 clear rounds maybe with a supreme performance. Which could still come out as a draw. lol.

 

If you think Canelo wins, then don't bet on Bivol.

The 'value bet' is the best way bookies make money because it's an emotional decision not a logical one.

I rarely bet on boxing. The last time I did was the Bellew vs Haye rematch for which - in the UK at least - Haye was around a 1/2 favourite, and Bellew something like 15/8. That was a licence to print money...

 

This is the worst take i have ever read regarding to betting.

I'm a full time gambler for about 10 years now and i bet so many times on fighters (MMA & Boxing) i wouldn't pick in a pick em' type of competition but bet them because the odds were just way off.

Betting is about maths and value.

I bet Ruiz to KO Joshua in the first fight at 20/1. Did i pick Ruiz to win by KO? No, obviously not. But the odds were just way off and Ruiz only have 4-5% to win by KO was insane.

If you think Bivol wins 30% of the time, then bet him at 4/1. The value is clearly there even if you have him only at 30%. If you think he wins only 20% of the time, then 4/1 has no value because 4/1 = 20%.

Betting is maths. Simple.

Of course it's a long process to get those %s accurately (watching tape and getting other information in etc., analyzing the matchup) but that's the most difficult part of the game.

 

You regularly bet on outcomes you don't think will happen?

 

I see you're a complete betting amateur but giving people advices here. Ridiculous.

I'm betting on guys and girls who have a better chance to win than the odds suggest. It isn't so hard to understand at all if you have two or three brain cells which i start to doubt tbf.

Stop BS'ing me with this nonsense and stop giving people advices about topics you don't know **** about.

@ everyone
Do not give a **** about this meatball and his goofy betting tips. He has no clue about betting and the maths behind it.

 

I did say 'value betting' was an emotional decision. Your reaction to a different take on betting is also emotional...

 

Very bad betting odds for me.
Everyone knows what happens when Bivol wins, he loses on the cards anyway. A draw (if Bivol wins around 8 rounds to 4) might be a better bet.

 

It's not a different one. It's a false one by a guy who has no idea about betting at all.

The different take on betting is how much % you give a fighter in a matchup. Some might say Canelo is a 80% fav, some might say he's a 65% fav and some cap him at 55%. Whatever.

Nobody who is serious about betting and knows his **** would debate the fact that a value bet isn't always on the fighter you think will win.

There is a difference between capping a fighter at 60% which literally means you think he's the favorite and still betting the underdog because the price tag is much better than it should be.

I don't think you understand the principle of betting and value bets at all.

But you shouldn't give people advices when you have no clue what you're talking about....

 

Cool. As long as you enjoy it, that's the main thing...

 

I never post here but had to reply to this one.

Value betting is the exact opposite of emotional betting.

To put it simply, if you think Bivol has 30% chance to win at 4:1 odds you calculate your expected value (EV)

So let's say I risk $100. I either win $400 or lose $100.

30% of the time I win $400. 0.3*400=120

70% of the time I lose $100. .7*100=70

120-70= 50. So my expected profit in the long run is 50 which is really high when you are only risking 100. You have a 50% ROI (Return on Investment)


Personally I don't think Bivol has anywhere near a 30% chance because he'll get robbed on the cards if he does "win". Since he can only win by KO I would put it at well below that personally.

But if I did think he had 30% chance I'd bet the **** of it. This is strictly looking at numbers and doing the exact opposite of emotional betting.

Emotional betting would be just betting who you think wins without factoring in the odds. Or just betting for the sake of "action" is emotional betting.

 

Yes if you think he wins go ahead and beat on Bivol by decision. "rigged cards" are extremely exaggerated, he will get the decision if he wins

 

What are the odds on a draw? If Bivol wins like 7-5 or 8-4, I could definitely see a draw happening.

 

How much did you end up making on the ruiz aj fight?

 

Reasonable reply and take. When I originally posted I was thinking of the last bit you wrote 'Or just betting for the sake of "action" is emotional' and the fact most people do this when they see tempting odds and say things like 'Look at those odds, be a fool to turn them down'.

I have no doubt people also bet scientifically in the way you outlined above - but I suspect they're the tiny minority. You sound pretty logical and composed - not impulsive - so I can see you have the kind of mentality to make this work for you.

I still stand by my general observation of not betting on an outcome you don't think will or even might happen, just because the odds are tempting. That's the emotional aspect I was getting at.