Better Chance at Upset: Gesta Or Kiram

Who has the bigger chance at an upset this weekend on HBO?

My thoughts are Kiram. Lucas is not a welterweight and the last guy he blasted out was a 140 pound fighter. I also think Matthysse has seen better days, having been in too many wars and is now fighting bigger men at a higher weight class. While he has shown great power, it might not translate to 147. And if he is shot, I think going against a durable opponent with a good workrate might be the wrong style to go against if he doesn't blast him out of there.

Kiram is no world beater and the only recognizable name on his resume is Mabuza but he seems to have decent pop and a good jab. He is also bigger than Matthysse and Thai fighters in general seem durable. Kiram is ten years younger and should have the better stamina here. Clearly he is at an experience disadvantage against Lucas and that could be the difference. Still I'm thinking of betting Kiram at +750, I think those odds are a little out of whack. If Kiram gets blasted out of there, I'll look stupid but I didn't take Peterson at +1200 because I thought he had no shot against Spence. I was right but I'm not so sure about Lucas, whose better days are behind him (having been in wars with Provo, Molina, Garcia, and Postol)).

As for Gesta, Linares has been stopped in the past but I don't think Gesta has the right style to pull off the upset. And unlike Matthyssee, I think Linares is more well-preserved and also just a more well rounded fighter in general. I don't give Gesta much of a shot.

 

I probably wouldn't switch if I were you, I still expect Lucas to win. Mattyhssee is way more proven but there are still many question marks around him. He could be in for a tough night if he can't get Kiram out of there and/or his reflexes/stamina aren't there anymore.

We shall see, I'm definitely going to throw some money down on Kiram. Hey I made money off of Rungvasi/Gonzales I so I can look at it as playing with "Thai house money".

 

BUMP!!! I put $100 down on Kiram with some NBA parlays. People jump on the Kiram Loot Train!

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CST changed his pick in the Prediction thread to Kiram by KO. The closer the fight gets, the more I think Lucas is in for a tough night. I think he is definitely getting overvalued by the betting markets being a 14:1 favorite. Anyone who struggled with John Molina and was stopped by Postol shouldn't be that big of a favorite over a naturally bigger opponent at a new weight class, especially one who is competent like Kiram.

 

Sometimes he crashes and burns on his picks but at least he's got some conviction and doesn't always play it safe. And really there isn't a ton of parity in boxing so it is really not hard to get a good record since the large favorites win nearly every time.