Betting on B-Hop by decision seems like the best "Value" Bet

I've seen Hopkins as high at +600 to win by decision. IF he wins the fight, it will be by decision. I got on the line at +570 by decision. The overall moneyline has B-Hop at +360 at some places. I don't know about you guys, but I would bet B-Hop at +360 against anybody in the world. He has that way of keeping fights close, and if he gets inside your head he's going to win by a wide decision. Yes, he's 3-3 in his last six but there are people around that will say he should be 6-0, or 5-1. The only real loss I thought he had was his last one when he was outworked down the stretch by Calzhage. However, these lines just seem way too good to pass up.

Now, if I were still writing and someone asked for my opinion on how the fight would go I would say Pavlik by decision. But, given this line, I feel the percentage of times Hopkins could win warrants this as the best "value" bet on this fight.

Discuss, please.

 

A value bet means that basically the odds you think of it happening are worth the risk too you. There are better definition I'm sure, but it means something along the lines of this. If they were to fight 10 times if you FEEL Hopkins would win 3 or 4 times by decision, then getting +600 is a great bet. Even if you think Pavlik will win by KO,Dec the other seven times. I hope this helps somewhat.