No, you're both wrong. I don't care what the odds say, cause like I said, I'm sure the odds on Joshua-Ruiz were also bigger than the odds on Jones-Tarver. Lennox Lewis had been KO'd before. By one right hand... from a journeyman. What in the HELL was no shocking about a journeyman KOing with a right hand a second time? ESPECIALLY considering that it was WELL DOCUMENTED coming into the fight that Lewis wasn't training hard. Surprising upset. Not a shocking one. There's a difference. Perspective trumps odds. Lennox Lewis was not the P4P #1 and was never in the GOAT conversation. Jones was.
I know that I'm just a complete stranger online but I give you my word that I bet on Tarver in the Jones rematch. A Jones-fan friend gave me something like 2-1 or 3-1 odds.
The only upset where the astronomical odds and the shocking result correlate is Tyson-Douglas. Joshua-Ruiz, for example, the odds were astronomical, but the result wasn't that shocking. Joshua is a stiff. Lewis getting KO'd by a right hand from a nobody shouldn't be some Earth-shattering shock when the SAME THING HAD PREVIOUSLY HAPPENED TO HIM!
00’s Jim Corbett vs John L Sullivan 20’s Gene Tunney versus Jack Dempsey 30’s Max Schmeling vs Joe Louis, shout to Braddock vs Baer 40’s Fritzie Zivic vs Henry Armstrong 50’s Randy Turpin vs Sugar Ray Robinson I 60’s Cassius Clay vs Sonny Liston I 70’s Muhammad Ali vs George Foreman 80’s Sugar Ray Leonard vs marvelous Marvin regular 90’s Mike Tyson vsBuster Douglas, shout to Evander Holyfield vs Mike Tyson 00’s Hasim Rahman vs Lennox Lewis 10’s Andy Ruiz Jr vs Anthony Joshua 20’s cOVID-19 vs Boxing
Fun idea for a thread. 30s: Schmeling-Louis, although Braddock-Baer probably warrants a mention as well. 40s: Saddler-Pep 50s: Turpin-Robinson 60s: Ali-Liston 70s: Ali-Foreman 80s: Honeyghan-Curry 90s: Douglas-Tyson 2000s: I'll say Sanders-Klitschko. Ross Puritty had already shown that Wlad was vulnerable, but Sanders was thought to be finished coming in. I'm not sure on the odds, but as far as heavyweights go, it was probably on the same level as Rahman-Lewis at the very least. Johnson's knockout of Jones was also pretty huge. The Tarver knockout was massive, but Johnson was figured to be an easy tune up for Roy to get back on track. It doesn't really seem like a big upset with hindsight and given that the Tarver fight happened shortly before but not many people really knew how good Johnson was and pretty much no one gave him a chance.
There might be a case for ignoring the odds completely if we were comparing 4:1 odds to 2:1 or even 8:1 or something but not 20:1. Come on. Your comments all seem like complete after-the-fact rationalizations. The McCall "ko" (Lewis was on his feet and arguably should have been allowed to continue) had happened 7 years before the Rahman fight. Since then Lewis had dominated more heavyweights with elite power than any other fighter ever. Nobody was thinking about McCall heading into Rahman I. And there was some awareness that Lewis and Stewart were tied up with Ocean's 11 and not especially concerned about Rahman, but this didn't raise any concerns, anywhere. Tarver had busted Jones up in their first fight and made him look extremely human. There's no comparison whatsoever here.
Cool! I certainly didn't pick it. Though if a friend offered me those odds I might take him up on it, but I wouldn't have bet much. I didn't when I bet on Spinks to beat Tyson. I hope you won some decent cash.
Crazy how quickly people have forgotten that Hopkins-Trinidad was a big upset. It'd be an exaggeration to say that nobody was picking Hopkins, but those picking Hopkins were in the VAST minority. Most people thought Hopkins was going to sleep, and I won't act all-knowing, because I was one of them.
There's no after-the-fact reaction. The prevailing thought was that Jones only struggled with Tarver due to the weight drain (which is true). While it might seem anecdotal, boxing forums can sometimes give a good indicator on the temperature of fights. Better than odds makers, because we know the sport better. There were a few major forums around back then (this one included), and trust me.... NOBODY thought Tarver would win the rematch. Nobody. It wasn't a thought among boxing writers either. Virtually everybody expected Jones to light Tarver up in the rematch. The fact that he got clocked in 2 rounds was a bigger upset than Lewis suffering his SECOND career KO to a journeyman.
Even if Foreman-Ali is the most famous upset of the 1970s, no way is it the biggest. Ali was unquestionably a top-three heavy at that point. Backus vs. Napoles is a good call. Park vs. Canto was a bigger upset than the Rumble as well. I agree with Tyson vs. Douglas, but a sleeper pick for the '90s is Steve Little vs. Michael Nunn. Nunn wasn't making P4P lists anymore, but a one-loss multi-weight champion losing to an outright journeyman (21-13-2) is a shock no matter how lackluster the former has become. Amado Ursua vs. Zapata had to have been a shocker. The Panamanian commentators decried it as a painful loss because it came to a guy who had nothing but a powerful punch.
I remember watching that one at the time thinking GEORGE what are you doing! Taking on Lyle after as a layoff seemed insane! I just re-watched recently, it never disappoints!
