Billy "Sweet Pea" Saunders vs Andy "Dhalsim" Lee, aj's Anlysis/Prediction

Big fight at middle weight in the UK this weekend for the WBO MiddleWeight title.

Vegas has both these fighters listed as -110, technically both are favored to win. Pick em fight, 50/50 guess thier oddsmakers don't percieve any advantage one way or another.

Here's the breakdown of the fighters, the fight styles, and the fight as I see it



Billy Joe Saunders: Saunders is a unique mix of gifted genetics, awkward style, little power, and an aggressive hungry mindset.
The defense of this southpaw is a thing to behold. This kid has that special gift .. that inborn radar that is reminiscent to Whitaker, or Nicolino Locche or Ali, that makes you miss and miss bad cus his reflexes are that good. He doesn't subscribe to one guard he utilizes a variety of guards. Peekaboo, shell defense, amateur with the lead hand out, classic tight guard, and even the both-hands-completely-down guard which the next step is just going full out Roy Jones with both hands behind your back. Don't be get it wrong, He doesn't rebel against textbook boxign defense.. on the contrary, he ducks, slips or utilizes the shoulder roll. If you attack him and make him slip your punches... look out. He's not going to retreat.. instead he beautifully.. i mean gorgeously he shifts weight, steps, and pivots so now he's out of your range but he has an angle to punch at you and you don't have time to recover your f*cked.

He has supreme footwork and balance that has got to rank up there with the best in the game and it provides a seemless fluidity between offense and defense. You can have him fight in a phone booth and he will make it look like a football field.

Offensively, he doesn't have a whole lot of power but hes got a little pop. He's quick. He doesn't have elite speed, but he has good speed. He doesn't look to just slickly counterpunch you in a lowscoring chess match ala Corey Spinks. No, Saunders has a decent work rate and is an aggressive technician. He will use the jab and intiate combinations, then use his defensive prowess to lead to more offense or to retreat and then pick another spot. He fights very well on the inside, like a crafty veteran.



Weaknesses: He can be hit and gets hit due to the low guard, and with all his reflexive capabilities he's not perfect. When he uses his lead hand as the third or fourth punch in combination... its a completely harmless arm punch he doesnt have any leverage on. Saunders is not a savy counterpuncher. He gets away with not using the optimum punches to counter because his footwork and defense is so good, that you will get punished anyway. For all his defensive and footwork mastery.. he hasn't mastered controlling his distance and range yet 100 percent of the time, which is befuddling it seems he should. Could be he needs more experience... but for whatever reason he will be willing to languish in range unnecessarily, rather then staying just outside and moving inside at will. Lastly he has a tendency to come in looking fleshy and leads me to think hes not always in the best shape and stamina, he seemed to gas vs Eubank, he seemed to be gassing vs Blandamura before the KO. He can't afford to be anything but in his best shape to go all 12 rounds with no lapse in stamina vs Lee or he could be in trouble.

Notable fights: Saunders best win was vs. a game Eubank Jr... He showed off his formidable skills and performed admirable and earned the win. However someone forgot to tell Eubank Jr. that as the taller man with Saunders just languishing at the end of his punch range the whole night... that *ahem* the JAB will set up all those powershots you so desperately want to land. Eubank Jr. for the most part looked allergic to leading with the jab in this fight, which was a huge mistake, because Saunders the smaller man, didn't forget about jab at all. All he had to do was committ to setting everything up with the jab and it would have been a completely different fight... anyway we won't see how that would play out but you can damn well be sure that we will know after the fight with Lee. Other then that he had the nice KO vs the solid Emanuele Blandamura who was undefeated at the time he was outboxing to win the EU championship. He had a tuneup fight vs a tall southpaw cabdriver as his last fight who he KOed after a few rounds. But he has yet to be tested at a fighters of Lee's pedigree as of yet this is his career defining fight to date.











Andy Lee: Andy Lee is a natural athlete. Tall, rangy coordinated southpaw that punches like an Ox. Also awkward. Theres a sense he hasnt fought up to his athletic potential to maximize his skillset as of yet at this point in his career. But he comes ready to fight and KO you. And he has KO power, hes a very big puncher. He's been a gatekeeper to the divisions elite for a while now. He keeps a very wide stance. His guard.. he holds out his long lead hand with his left power hand close to his chin. He picks off opponents shots by blocking, and by using footwork to shuffle backward. He is patient, stalking waiting for the opening to land a big power shot. His jab is extremely long, rangey and powerful. In fact every Andy Lee punch is long. Every Andy Lee punch has power. He shows flashes of really good coordination and athleticism in his movement and footwork.

Weaknesses: He's slow, slower then he should be for his athleticism. Mentally... he just has a slew of lapses. Where he doesnt properly defend in position, doesnt keep his punching distance to an aggressive opponent, he uses that jab for absolutely no further reason then to throw it many times which is a shame, his jab is elite for the MW division and can control the opponent and setup his power. He has a very low work rate. He telegraphs almost all of his punches. He has little head movement defensively so he's easy to hit. He fancys himself a counterpuncher.. try that against Saunders and you will be tasting leather. Many times after punching he will just back straight out with no defensive move.. this habit is primed for punishment. He rarely throws a combo. Its all stalking looking for one big punch. At times his footwork and balance and defense is questionable. He's so tight in there.. to tight. Like he's anxious.. it takes away from his ability to open up. As you can see there is a LOT of criticism on Lee on here and rightfully so. These are huge facets of your game, especially disappearing mentally that hurt yourself more then your opponent does.


Notable fights: He had a draw verse Quillin in his last fight where he got dropped a couple times he also hurt Quillin, he showed his usual lapses and strengths. Before that he had a nice KO over the undefeated Korbodov, he utilized a gameplan where he established and committed to his distance and backed up the entire time! It was actually shocking because Korbodov seemed like a good boxer, good win for Lee. Fighting that way vs Saunders will be a good fight plan for him. He got KOed by Chavez in 2012 and has fought just 7 times since then, I also believe this was his last fight with Stewart.

Prediction: before getting to the prediction Some sidestories to track:

1) Lee's is best jab Saunders will have faced, it will be interesting to see how he deals with it, luckily for him Lee doesn't consistently use it for a intentioned purpose like establishing range or setting up combos.

2) Saunders has not been in with a puncher like Lee, his chin could be tested. After all Lee got a lucky KO punch on Korbodov.

3) If Saunders gases late because he didn't train properly as it seemed to my eyes he did vs Eubank and the Italian.. in this fight hes jeopardized his chances of winning the fight and risks getting KOed


Bad style matchup for Lee. Both of these fighters disregard establishing and staying at proper distance in many portions of thier fights which benefits Saunders in this case. Lee's slow, telegraphed punches and lack of defense, combined with Saunders impeccable footwork, balance and speed, is poised to make Andy Lee look slower then mollasses and the boxing skill, reflexes disparity like an amateur/pro in the ring. It will be a masterclass. Shutout UD or TKO late. If Saunders doesn't gas.. if he does.. this prediction is nullified.

 

Close MD...Saunders gassed... again.