You didn't say it but I will. I think Rios would have a better-than-average chance of beating Thurman, despite giving up some pounds. Thurman would NOT be comfortable fighting at Rios distance and pace. He'd have to stand and bang on the inside or run and potshot at a much higher rate than he'd like to. Definitely would show us what he's made of.
That was months ago that I posted this, right after the Rios Chavez match and I'm starting to think Rios could beat him as well or at least come close.