British Forum BETTING thread

Phil Taylor is 11/5 to NOT drop a leg over at Betfair. Not sure I will bother myself since he didn't show great form in the Grand Slam but this bet did come in last year at a similar price vs Colin Monk.

 

Gary Mawson's a far better player than Colin Monk is nowadays though. No way will Taylor win 9 legs in a row against him.

Edit: Actually with the way Mawson's started.. might have been a decent bet lol

 

Campillo is 7/2 to beat Thierry Karl on points on Sporting Bet. Bet of 2011 for sure!

 

That's what makes me wary of the bet. Although 7/2 is too good to pass up.

 

Think I'll have a bit of that. :good Cheers Daveyboy.

 

Betfair now have a market on who will David Haye fight next

 

I know where my money will be going.....

"Any Other Opponent"

 

just put together a weekend accy of footy/boxing which i think is value, gone with doncaster, sheff wed, pascal pts, spurs, chelsea and everton 166/1 at coral according to oddschecker well worth £3 quid me thinks,

 

I agree.....

I personally think Huck will last long enough, but Dennis's onslaught will cause Huck to be more active and he will bring Huck down. Im thinking Lebedev by the 9th round.

Huck is very defeatable. You just need to have a skilled and active fighter in front of him, and I think Dennis has that. With someone like Haye, or Adamek, etc(both verry skilled and active)... back when they were in the CW division, they would of beat Huck before 7 rounds imo. I think even Wlodarczyk would KO Huck too.

Man this post got me excited, I can't wait for the Super 6. I know that the Cruiserweight Super 6 will be wayy better than the SMW one.

 

Recommended Bets

Date of Game: Saturday 18th December
Game: Sunderland v Bolton Wanderers - kick-off 12.45pm
Competition: Premier League

Selection: Sunderland to win

Best Prices
2.2 with Ladbrokes, PaddyPower, WilliamHill, Interwetten
2.18 with 188bet, 5Dimes, Sportbet
2.16 with SBObet, Canbet
2.15 with VictorChandler, Nordicbet, Gamebookers, Partybets, BetFred, Chronicle, Mansion88, Greek

Reasoning: You guys know of my Sunderland love and despite Bolton looking a decent side this season I think at the current odds Sunderland look a nice bit of value once again.

I'm repeating what I've said in past weeks but Sunderland have only lost 3 of 27 Premier League home games under Steve Bruce and all 3 of those were forgiveable coming against Chelsea, Man Utd and Villa (when Villa were up in 3rd last Xmas). This season their home record is very impressive considering the strength of their opponents:-

DREW 2-2 v Birmingham
WON 1-0 v Man City
DREW 1-1 v Arsenal
DREW 0-0 v Man Utd
WON 1-0 v A.Villa
WON 2-0 v Stoke
DREW 2-2 v Everton
WON 1-0 v West Ham

5 clean sheets in 8 games is obviously a very solid achievement. Especially so when you consider the goals they have conceded. The 2 Birmingham goals they conceded came when Sunderland were down to 10 men, the Arsenal goal was that freak goal when Fabregas blocked a clearance from 40 yards out and it flew over the keepers head and in and 1 of the Everton goals also took a big, big deflection. You could argue they have only conceded 1 "legitimate" goal at home all season.

A lot of Boltons points this season have come in high scoring games where they have took a "we'll score more than you approach". Against more solid defensively sound sides that approach struggles a bit. Looking back at their results this season, when they have faced a side who have conceded 20 or less so far this season Bolton have picked up just 4 points from 6 games (0.66pts per game) including dropped points at home to the likes of Fulham and Birmingham. However when they have faced a side who has conceded more than 20 in total this season they have claimed 22 points in 11 games (2.00 pts per game). It's a small sample admittedly and slightly backfitted but it is logical that Bolton's approach wont work as well against sides who are set up to be solid at the back like Sunderland rather than a side like say Tottenham who will go with them in the attacking stakes. That's my amateur tactical analysis anyway!

A side as solid at home as Sunderland have to be backed at this price IMO. Incidentally Sunderland have a better home record in 2010 than Man City. That is over 20 games so is a pretty fair period. Man.City were a general price of 1.5 at home to Bolton a couple of weeks ago yet Sunderland are out at 2.2 for this one.


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Date of Game: Saturday 18th December
Game: Real Sociedad v Valencia - kick-off 9.00pm
Competition: La Liga

Selection: Sociedad to win

Best Prices
3.25 with 188bet
3.2 with Pinnacle, VictorChandler
3.18 with 5Dimes, Sportbet
3.17 with 12bet, Mansion88
3.15 with SBObet, Canbet, 10bet

Reasoning: Much like Sunderland, I've been backing Sociedad at home most weeks so far this season and don't see any reason not to continue doing so in this one.

So far their La Liga home record since their promotion in the summer is:-

WON 1-0 v Villarreal
LOST 1-2 v Real Madrid
WON 1-0 v Espanyol
WON 3-0 v Deportivo
WON 1-0 v Santander
LOST 2-4 v Athletico Madrid
WON 2-0 v Athletic Bilboa

Thats a good record and 5 wins "to nil" out of 7 games has to be given respect.

It's probably a good time to be playing Valencia given they are in a bit of a poor run of form with just 2 wins from their last 9 La Liga games. Away from home in 2010 they have a pretty poor record with a P18, W5, D3, L10, F19, A30 record. Thats only just scraping into the top half of the 2010 away league table and certainly doesn't justify their position as away favourites in this one.

Value price on the home win.


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Date of Game: Sunday 19th December
Game: Osasuna v Real Zaragoza - kick-off 4.00pm
Competition: La Liga

Selection: Osasuna to win

Best Prices
2.04 with BetPhoenix
2.03 with 188bet
2.02 with 12bet, Mansion88
2.0 with SBObet, Canbet, VictorChandler, PaddyPower, Bet365, WilliamHill

Reasoning: Beleive it or not Osasuna have the 2nd best home defensive record in La Liga in 2010 - both in terms of goals conceded and clean sheets. Just 13 goals conceded in 19 La Liga home games (with 11 clean sheets in those 19) is a strong, strong record. This season their home record is:-

DREW 0-0 v Almeria
WON 3-1 v Sociedad
DREW 1-1 v Levante
WON 3-0 v Malaga
WON 3-0 v Hercules
WON 1-0 v Gijon
LOST 0-3 v Barcelona

Obviously the Barca result can be excused and just 2 goals conceded in the other 6 games is a good feat. Not the most testing opponents granted, but to be fair neither are their opponents on Sunday.

Zaragoza dont really score much away from home with just 4 goals in 7 away games this season and just 16 in 19 La Liga away games in 2010. Seems like the perfect opponent for Osasuna and the home win looks a generous price to me.



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Date of Game: Sunday 19th December
Game: Sampdoria v Genoa - kick-off 7.45pm
Competition: Serie A

Selection: Sampdoria to win

Best Prices
2.75 with 5Dimes, Sportbet, VictorChandler
2.73 with Pinnacle
2.72 with Chronicle
2.7 with Betsson

Reasoning: Whether you agree with me on this one or not probably depends on what you think the reasons for home advantage are. These 2 sides share a stadium so their local derbies are obviously played at the same ground. Does that mean normal home/away stats arn't relevant? My opinion is that home advantage is about the fans and the psychological pressures that puts on players and officials. As this is a home match for Sampdoria they will obviously have 90% of the crowd and in my opinion that makes this match pretty much no different to any other home/away match.

The stats back this up. Past results in this fixture are roughly what you would expect in a normal home/away game of similar level sides. In the past 10 years there have been 12 Serie A games between these 2 sides and there have been 7 home wins, 2 draws and 3 away wins. Other derbies where sides share a stadium throw up similar sorts of numbers. In the Roma/Lazio derby in the last 10 years there have been 11 home wins, 7 draws and 4 away wins. In the Milan derby it's 11 home wins, 3 draws and 6 away wins. Those numbers suggest home advantage in these sort of games is as important as it is in other games.

If we are going with the idea that home/away from is pretty similar to usual then the odds on Sampdoria look big. Samp are generally strong at home with just 1 defeat in their last 35 Serie A home games. They've not been as strong this season as they were last season but have still done OK with 3 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss. Odds in the region of the 2.6 - 2.8 mark for the home win look generous for them to beat a side 2 points worse off than them in the league.

 

^I could have predicted the Sunderland and Sociedad tips but there you have it.

 

the last 2 weeks ive put 2.50 on each of djocs tips , i think after a season youd do well to be down imo there solid solid tips

 

NFL

Washington @ Dallas -6.5 with Tote Sport

Washington have benched Donavan McNabb in favour of Rex Grossmanatsch
This bloke is a clown and it will be easy pickings for the cowbloys. The hc started today at -5 so its moving quickly. In vegas its up to -8

 

Not mine mate! I don't like taking the credit for them. The bloke e-mails a summary every week. As of last weekend:

Weekend Total = + 3.94 pts

2010/11 Starting Bank = 25.00 pts
2010/11 Current Bank = 38.01 pts (52.0% ROC)

Current Season Profit/loss = + 13.01 pts (40.6% ROI)