British Forum BETTING thread

Not sure about that one. Arsenal have a lot of tough games coming up after a difficult period. Even their first team isn't in that great form (bar the Chelsea win which even then..) and they'll likely rest a lot of players. Wouldn't be too surprised if Leeds got a draw or it's close.

 

Rigo is now 2/7 against Casey. I hope you got your money down at 1/2 lads. :good


Thierry Karl - 8/13
Danny McIntosh - 13/10

Karl Decision - 2/1
Karl TKO - 2/1
McIntosh Decision - 9/2
McIntosh TKO - 5/2

:think

 

I put these two accies on my FB page.....

This weekend's tips..... aways - Villa to beat Sheffield Utd, West Brom to beat Reading, Everton to beat Scunthorpe and Barnsley to beat West Ham..... £10 pays £620.

Homes - Millwall to beat Birmingham, Sunderland to beat Notts County, Man Utd to beat Liverpool, Coventry to beat Palace, Fulham to beat Peterborough..... £10 pays £175.

:think

 

It's true; when you see something but DON'T bet, it comes in. Recent examples:

Blackburn to beat Liverpool - 11/4. Liverpool continue to get priced up WAY too short away from home.

Wolves to beat Chelsea - 11/2 (Maybe I'm just saying this one with the benefit of hindsight. I think a lay of Chelsea would have been more likely at 4/7)

Waites to beat Hankey 3-0 was 7/2

:rant

 

Recommended Bets

Date of Game: Saturday 8th January
Game: Real Sociedad v Sevilla - kick-off 7.00pm
Competition: La Liga

Selection: Sociedad to win

Best Prices
3.13 with Pinnacle
3.07 with 5Dimes, Sportbet, 12bet, Mansion88
3.0 with BetFred, VictorChandler
2.98 with 10bet
2.96 with Chronicle

Reasoning: Sociedad have done us well so far this season, winning on 3 of the 5 times we have been with them for a 1.80 pts profit. Their overall home record this season is P8,W5,D0,L3 which while decent enough doesn't quite do them justice as in those 8 games they have already faced 6 of the current top 8 - Real Madrid, Villarreal, Valencia, Espanyol, Athletico Madrid and Bilbao. It's a very good record overall.

So far their La Liga home record since their promotion in the summer is:-

WON 1-0 v Villarreal
LOST 1-2 v Real Madrid
WON 1-0 v Espanyol
WON 3-0 v Deportivo
WON 1-0 v Santander
LOST 2-4 v Athletico Madrid
WON 2-0 v Athletic Bilboa
LOST 1-2 v Valencia

Thats a good record and 5 wins "to nil" out of 8 games has to be given respect. They have only gone down to top 5 or 6 sides and all 3 of those games were a lot closer than the scoreline suggests.

Sevilla's record this season and in the last 12 months suggests they are nothing more than a mid-table side nowadays. Away from home especially they were poor in 2010 losing 13 of their 20 La Liga away games. They didn't keep a single clean sheet in those 20 games and failed to score 8 times. This season they have lost 5 of 8 La Liga away games.

Looks plenty of value in the home win to me.


--------------------------------------------


Date of Game: Sunday 9th January
Game: Parma v Cagliari - kick-off 2.00pm
Competition: Serie A

Selection: Parma to win

Best Prices
2.1 with Ladbrokes, Coral, Eurobet, BlueSq, 888bet
2.07 with Nordicbet
2.05 with Pinnacle, 188bet, Unibet, PaddyPower, Bet-at-home, Skybet, Bodog, Totesport

Reasoning: Defensively sound home sides against low scoring away sides is always a simplistic but effective sort of game to get involved in and this looks one of those sort of games.

Parma have only conceded 4 goals in 9 Serie A home games this season. Last season they only conceded 17 in 19 home games. By contrast Cagliari have only scored 6 goals in 9 Serie A away games this season and only 18 in 19 last season.

Parma's record at home to low scoring away sides in the last 2 seasons (I'd class low scoring as an average of less than a goal per game) is W-W-L-W-W-W-D-L-W-W-W-D-D-W with clean sheets in 8 of those 14 games.

Parma are in decent form at the moment with only 3 defeats in their last 12 games (all tough games away at Inter, Napoli and Palermo) and they picked up a cracking 4-1 win at Juventus yesterday. Juventus were unbeaten in 13 Serie A games prior to that so it is a fair result.

Odds against looks a decent bet.


--------------------------------------------


Date of Game: Sunday 9th January
Game: Racing Santander v Sporting Gijon - kick-off 4.00pm
Competition: La Liga

Selection: Santander to win

Best Prices
2.0 with Coral, Eurobet, 12bet, Mansion88
1.99 with Pinnacle, 5Dimes, Sportbet
1.98 with 188bet, SBObet, Canbet

Reasoning: Santander lost 0-3 at home to Barcelona on the opening day of the season but since then have been solid at home with a W-L-W-W-D-W-D record. They've only conceded 2 goals in those 7 games.

Gijon have only picked up 3 points from a possible 24 in their 8 La Liga away games this season and have scored just 4 goals in the process. Overall in 2010 Gijon only picked up 10 points from a possible 57 away from home and scored just 13 times in 19 games.

Santander look value at their current price.

 

Rigo already in to as short as 1/7 in some places. ****ing gutted that I only got paid today :verysad

 

The FA cup games have some great odd's on it think ill try a few of them tomorrow.

 

Arsenal, small heath, Blackburn, Coventry, Reading - 25/1

:think

 

Why are Arsenal drifting? Beeston Brawler? Is there some team news? They're shorter than 1/3 vs lower end Premier League teams at home. BEWARE - somebody said the very same thing this time last year when Leeds to playing Man Utd at OT.

I've gone for a little bet on Barnsley also. They're 5/1 currently (in from 11/2 yesterday).

Speculative, but Notts County to beat Sunderland - 15/2. This has also been shortened with most firms.

 

Van Persie and Nasri aren't playing..... but we couldn't keep a clean sheet against Arsenal's nappy squad, and can only play one up front to save Schmeichel from facing a firing squad.

Leeds fans always bet big on these games, I'd leave it until before kick off, you might even get odds against on a one goal handicap, or 1/2 for the win only.

We are without a win in four, compared to last season when we were flying, plus Arsenal's style of play with the runners is well suited to giving us a real kicking, compared to the **** Man Utd tried to play.

I'd look at the overs markets definitely.

 

Anyone every bet on the Golf each way? I've starting watching golf a lot more and the each way betting looks a decent shout for the outsiders. Got a fiver on Anthony Kim to make it 1-4 and he was 50-1 to win think it get me back about 50 or so pound makes it a bit more interesting.

 

Cheers for that. Since the game is live I think I'll have a look see how it's going and look for back/lay in the correct score market.

 

What score are you thinking?

None of Arsenal's keepers are that good and our attack is lethal, plus we'll just go balls to the wall to try and win.

If we win, obviously we get another payday, if we lose it's back to going for the top 6.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/fa-cup/arsenal-v-leeds/correct-score

I think 3-1 looks good at 10's, as does 4-1 at 16's.

 

3-1 is a good idea because it allows both teams to score which, as you say, is likely with these two teams. With 3-1, at 1-0, 2-0 1-1, or 2-1 you should get a decent swing in the odds and a chance to lay it off.

 

Betfair are now offering 12's on 3-1.

As soon as we score I'd lay that ****er off