I think it would be a great fight, but I would have to favour Chad Dawson over Lucian Bute, IF Dawson has a very good chin.. Dawson UD 115-112, with fair judges and a fair ref and neutral crowd in neutral setting. If Dawson has a slightly less than very good chin, Bute would probably T/KO him in the 11th or it would end up a draw if Dawson makes the count.
Dawson. He's naturally bigger, faster, and adjusts well. Bute is a very accomplished fighter and might make a fight of it but Dawson excells in comparison.
What is the main quatlity of Dawson? Speed. Bute is faster. What's his weakness? His chin. Bute, with Reyes gloves, hits hard. Bute by TKO.
Bute is not faster than Dawson, nor is he as good defensively. Good fight one day, though. Dawson UD.
Dawson doesn't have a great chin. However, Dawson, despite being bigger, is also MUCH quicker than anyone Bute's ever faced, and is much better defensively than anyone Bute's faced. I'm of the personal opinion that Bute's power is overrated, and while he's a solid boxer, I think he'd have some problems with Dawson's unorthodox defense, quickness, and major reach advantage. I suspect the fight would end up looking like a much larger version of the Guzman-Soto fight - exciting early on, but once Dawson figures Bute out, he lays back, potshots and keeps Bute from being able to get to him, cruising to a decision that's close more due to Dawson being safe in the later rounds than because the fight was actually close.
That's about how I see it. I think the odds of anyone outboxing Chad are pretty slim, so having massive power is the ticket, or at least a mauling style that can cause Dawson to fatigue late. Bute is too conventional to win this fight, although I think it would be entertaining, and like you I question his power at the level it's been touted. And then you have to guess what he may not carry to 175.
We hope to see him fight more... against Diaconu. Maybe this summer. We could argue about Dawson being overrated too. But Dawson is bigger, so maybe I was a little bit too enthusiastic. But I still think that Bute is faster than Dawson. If you're bigger, you're slower.
Dawson T/KO Bute? Yeah, 'cause Bute has an awful chin! And when Dawson comes in close for the kill, swinging to knock Bute out, no way is Bute going to tag him...and if he does...no way is Dawson going to respect him...:nut Dawson could possibly win 8-4 against Bute...make that 9-3, if you will, but he doesn't have a style advantage over Bute. He might be faster and he has a better reach, and he might move in and out better, his jab might be much superior and he might not even hit less hard...but T/KO? No way! Wouldn't happen, unless Dawson gets even better and Bute fights stupid.