Calzaghe v Jones - Analysis and prediction

havent you heard, americans don't like boxing anymore.

 

i think joe may well stop jones, he's massively motivated, jones well past his best, bookies are cutting joes odds by the hour. joe should win.

 

jones TKO stoppage

 

Predicting Jones to win by tko is wishful thinking to say the least.:huh

 

Anybody thoght of a draw? i think this fight may even end up a draw,
i do belive that Roy has a chance of biting Joe

 

I think the same. Roy's handspeed, accuracy, and counters will hold Joe off from overwhelming him early, but his lack of workrate and movement will eventually see Joe taking the wind out of him and stopping him around the 10th IMO.

Prime for prime Jones wins a pretty wide UD however.

 

its too close to call but i would like calzaghe to win this weekend by late stoppage or points win but a have this scary image in my mind of jones catching joe on a counter and turning the lights out . cant wait for it to kick off and ones thing is for sure it will be an exciting fight what ever happens

 

Errrr I'm back and forth! Currently after rewatching Jones/Tito and Cal/Hops last night I'm leaning towards a Jones UD. He will be even stronger in this fight because he has an extra 5 pounds and another 12 rounds experience of winning after the weight loss and defeats to build his confidence back up. And I think I was underestimating his stamina, yeah he took breaks but he also came forward alot and threw a good deal of punches in that tito fight. He was still very fresh in the 12th too. It really did appear he could and was doing whatever he wanted in there. And even though Tito was fighting way above his weight, he is still a future HOFer and ATG and looked relatively fast and crisp, and it still takes quite a fighter to handle him so convincingly like Jones did.

I see Jones staying in the middle of the ring and outboxing Joe with jabs, lead rights, occassional combinations and counters. I also think he is gonna befuddle Calzaghe with his speed. he has a different kind of speed then Calzaghe has. He is much much quicker, even today, at closing the gap....and that is a huge advantage.

 

Yeah I was thinking that too and was all but convinced Jones would gas and be beaten up late but lately I'm not so sure of it.
I just keep thinking of the phrase "styles make fights". Hopkins aloud Joe to come in and attempted to catch him once and tie him up, he did that the entire fight. He was constantly made to work, back up hold and hit....Hopkins does this all the time, but having to do it at someone elses pace is tiring because you can't settle into your rythm, you are dancing to someone elses rythm. I think Jones will for the most part try and keep Joe at bay with his jab and lead rights. He also has a different style of defense then Hopkins, one that allows Calzaghe to throw more, but it also doesn't sap as much energy because you aren't wrestling with another guy for 2:30 seconds of every round.

I think in the 1st round and even the 2nd maybe Jones is gonna give it away, as he did against Tito. He will look and see what Joe has in his shots. He will go to the ropes and cover up, allow Joe to unload on him. If he feels that he can do that and Calzaghes shots aren't gonna have a tolling effect then the fight is his and he will implement PLAN A. Which will be to keep it in the center and pick Calzaghe apart, spend about 1 minute around on the ropes countering and then try and finish the round strong. If Calzaghes shots hurt him early on and he feels he can't spend time covering up...he's gonna go all out and try and finish :deal

My prediction: Calzaghe is the much better fighter, with quicker and sharper punches then Tito BUT: He still can't outbox Roy in the center of the ring, and I don't think he has the power to seriously break through Roy's shell on the ropes and do enough damage to him. So I'm saying Jones is able to stick to PLAN A and WIN A UD :good

 

In reality we will never know what would have happened if they met in their primes.I think it would have been pretty tight.

 

It goes one of two ways;

Jones really is past his best and Calzaghe wins, either UD (116-112?) or, judging by recent footage of his pad work that suggests he's not going to worry about his hands (this being this 'last' fight) TKO, somewhere around the Championship rounds.

Or.........

Jones 'rolls back the years' and boxes his way to a tight decision. I say 'tight' not as a reference to how I think a fantasty matchup between the two in their primes as Jones is never going to recapture some of that form.

From what I can gather, Jones will be competitive for the first five rounds or so, but his legs will give up on him somewhere around the midway point. The kind of pressure Calzaghe will attempt to put on him will make sure of that.

However, without wanting to buck the trend, I've gone for Calzaghe PTS, rather than TKO, which is what I want to see.

However, as Roy Jones Jr. got me hooked on boxing as a kid, I won't be upset if he wins.