Can anyone show me proof of Khan taking a good shot and not being wobbled at least?

My gut tells me that Khan is going to get stopped. But I'm going to watch Khan vs. Kotelnik, Khan vs. Malignaggi, Maidana vs. Kotelnik, Maidana vs. Cayo, Maidana vs. Corley, and Maidana vs. Ortiz tonight and make an educated prediction.

 

Notes on Maidana

stiff, high arm defense. Body punching and counterpunching will be key to beating him.

likes to be right on top of you. in holding range, hands up, throwing hard arm punches

will switch stance while hitting on the inside. likes to take an angle especially in this way

applied all the correct strategies for fighting a southpaw vs corley

good counterpunching instincts (comes back with an appropriate counter when opponent misses).

commits to the body, hard and frequently

backs up with hands high

dropped cayo with 4b through the guard. hurt corley with 4 through the guard. seems to set this punch up rather than simply overthrow it and hope for accuracy by volume.

Very hittable while walking forward and punching.

Conditioning is DEFINITELY a big area of weakness. The Maidana from rounds 11 and 12 of the Corley fight would get stopped by Khan, easily.

Fights very dirty. punches on the break, punches behind the head, etc.

Maidana hit Ortiz (who is at least as skilled as Khan, and definitely more skilled defensively) with some ridiculously hard, jarring shots, and Ortiz shook them off for a few rounds. One would expect that Khan will eat even more, harder shots than Ortiz did, given the fact that the Maidana of today is much more refined as a boxer than he was back then.

Maidana went down 3 times vs. Ortiz, and Ortiz jumped on him after the knockdowns. Maidana recuperated very quickly. Also, all the knockdowns were from very very good punches.

Watching Maidana even as far back as the Ortiz fight, he isn't the terribly limited brawler he's made out to be. He's aggressive, and he does brawl quite a bit, but he's VERY good at closing distance, cutting off the ring, and applying steady pressure. He throws the right punches, counters effectively, and protects himself inside.

 

Notes on Khan

This Thai Boxing stance he uses is not going to be a good idea against a come-forward body puncher like Maidana.

Good jab, very fast and snappy. Will need to throw multiples against Maidana however.

Punches without setting his feet.

Very hittable downstairs.

Bad at maintaining distance.

Jab is a big strength but his over-reliance on it makes it very counterable with the right hand.

Keeps his hands up, but he doesn't actually shell up or tuck his elbows. Really seems to have no defense other than to counterpunch or smother and hold.

Doesn't press his advantage or create sustained exchanges. Throws a combo and either gets out or ties up.

I can't watch any more of this. Got through round four of the Malignaggi fight (I've seen the whole thing previously). I just can't stand fighters who don't know how to in-fight and try to tie up every time the other guy gets close.

 

Prediction:

Khan will only win if he drags Maidana into the championship rounds. He might stop him if he gets that far.

However, Maidana can stop Khan at ANY time in the fight.

I think Khan will be stopped in this fight. Maidana is always extremely successful with the right hand, and Khan's reliance on the jab, as well as his stance itself (left hand angled inward) is an invitation for Maidana's right.

Furthermore, Khan's lack of skill on the inside (remember, he's an amateur at heart and by habit, and inside fighting isn't rewarded in the amateur system) will lead to him absorbing a lot of body punishment, which will slow him down toward the end.

Maidana's defense (hands up and tight) is ideally suited for neutralizing a jab-happy fighter like Khan. Also, Maidana's pressure will mean that Khan will spend the fight countering off the back foot. While he will win rounds this way, he won't hurt Maidana or tire him out, since his feet will not be set.

Khan should look to take Maidana deep into the fight, but this will be difficult. In order to tire him out, you have to let him punch at you a lot. Khan hasn't got the defense to afford this. He spends too much time resetting and waiting, and this will not do much to tire Maidana out. Maidana gets tired by throwing a lot of punches every single round, but Khan's style will limit Maidana's output, which means Maidana will still have a lot left in the later rounds. Khan's best shot at tiring him out will be to create sustained offense. However, this will open him up to counters and it's against Khan's nature anyway.

I see Maidana knocking Khan out around the 8th round, though Khan may be ahead on points. Promises to be a good fight regardless of the outcome though.

 

Why dont you think Khan can stop him ? Hes got fast, heavy hands, thats what has saved him when hes been wobbled, apart from when he got sparked of course. I think hes gonna have real problems if maidana connects with a really good shot but Maidana wont be able to be wreckless looking for that punch or hell be the one on his ass. Its a good match I think.

 

Khan took a lot of flush shots from former title holder Gary St. Claire and didnt wobble or get stunned. However St.Claire has a less than 50% KO rating and was a career superfeatherweight.