Do you realise that a large LHW like Erdei likely hits harder than Pavlik, and Tarver definitely does. Those guys are better than Pavlik and pose more power risk. Pavlik would be little to nothing without his size advantage at MW. Joe would tear him to pieces and be able to set up his best left hooks as Pavlik plods forward... = Pavlik starched.
A second fight, with Calzaghe continuing to decline and Kessler entering his prime, would be legitimately 60-40. :nod