I don't think he can. But his style does not involve pts decisions anyway, he will go for the stoppage.
It being a 10-round fight, I'd say it's very unlikely. Early rounds will be given to Alexander for flashiness, grunting and high workrate. He'll already be given a massive lead by rounds 4-5. Maidana needs to emphatically (more than that even) scrape up the rest if he hopes to have any chance. Good thing is, he's already viewing this as a fight he can only win by knockout. So hopefully, he'll have his foot on the gas from the very first bell. But it'll be hard to do - Alexander has a really good chin. Alexander by decision.
It would be a refreshing change in boxing, but no. Rugged Argentines don't win decisions against popular American hypejobs, even if they've completely pressured them into submission and been more effective. Them's the rules.
Neither do Slick Spaniards get decisions against rugged American hypejobs. But seriously, the more provincial the venue (St Louis = provincial) the more likely the hometown decision. Although there is some word that there will be "world class" judges for this one.
World class judges can be influenced by their fears of what a rowdy provincial crowd may do when surrounding them in a confined building and taking exception to their judgment. They must be especially vigilant and mindful in this post 2-10 world. (never forget!)