Problem for Pavlik is that moving up he loses most of the advantages he had at 160lbs. He wont be stronger than everyone else, he wont hold a size advantage over everyone else, be it reach or weight, He will also be getting hit a hell of allot harder than he would be at Middle. Moving up is a bad idea for Pavlik, his best move would be regaining dominance at Middleweight.
I can't disagree he won't have the same power advantage, but the guy just can't make MW anymore. He hasn't been able to do it without being too drained since he won the title. He's just too big. It's really yet to be determined how much power if any he loses if he comes in without being too weight drained the pop could be as good or better, time will tell.
Sartison, Stieglitz, Abraham, Johnson and Bika. He has a very good chance of KO'ing Bute, a slightly lesser chance against Froch and Kessler and practically no chance against Dirrell and Ward.
I suppose on the flip side moving up could help his power and strength even more, think he walks around at 190lbs out of the ring, not draining the weight could benifit him no end. Problem is he has never been fast or elusive so i cant see him beating Dirrell or Ward but i see guys like Kessler, Bute and Froch being too strong and powerful. Pavlik will always destroy guys like Stieglitz and Sartison but how willing would they be to step into the ring with Kelly... not very is my guess.
"Can" being the operative word. I'd consider him an underdog against Bute, Froch and Kessler. I'd have him the favourite over everyone else.
I don't think Pavlik has a hope in hell against any of the 168 elite. Hopkins mentally raped him and he won't ever recover from that. He didnt have the technique to compete against Hopkins, didnt have the athleticism to compete against Martinez, and didnt display enough heart to attempt to force through any kind of winning mentality. Pavlik will be only ever be a stepping stone from now on. Sounds harsh but it's my honest opinion.
The odds aren't with him after a layoff and a weight class change, but it can be determined in the ring. He may not be the same guy he once was, but then again he may be better. Should be a good look at him on May 7, that will tell us much more.
Pavilk won't hold any advantages over the elite of 168lbs and honestly I don't see him beating Froch, Ward, Bute etc. Pavlik can't make weight either for MW and his only good fight there is with Martinez. Either Pavlik has to drain himself to make MW and try to dominate it or move up to 168lbs and try to get some good fights before they retire him.
I think Pav loses none of his speed (wasn't the fastest to begin with) and gains a bit of power at the new weight. IMO coming into fights with the right frame of mind and feeling heathier not trying to cut weight so much in camp,can create a better more dangerous Kelly Pavlik...Lets see how he looks on May 7th. Hard to say as of right now.