This is what I was going to touch on. I'd favor a lot of the top guys over Pavlik, not to mention he's probably on a slide.
Wouldn't favor him over any top 168 pounders. Wouldn't give him much of a chance at all against a couple of them.
Pavlik would definately be favoured from a physical POV in this matchup, I'll give you that. Abraham looked like absolute **** against a heavy handed opponent with reach (Froch) in his last fight but I doubt that Kelly would follow Froch's "stay outside and don't let AA come close" fightplan. He was loved for his fighting instinct and it would prolly kick in at one point and he would bang with Abraham. This should be quite a fan friendly matchup, so I'm still hoping that it'll happen. While I gave up on Abraham as far as the Super 6 goes, I still think he has a good chance to beat Pavlik. The same can be said the other way around too though, which makes it even more exciting as this fight is a tossup for me.
@ how bad pavlik is being marginalized. the version of kelly pavlik that won the title would leave carl froch for dead in the same ropes jermain taylor put him in. i just hope kelly has truly righted the ship and the fight can happen.
AA doesn't brawl. He does his own form of rope-a-dope and tries to get you to make a mistake. You still have to be at his preferred distance and Kelly is still longer.
Its hard to tell until after we see how Pavlik looks against Lopez and preferably one more fringe guy before stepping up to an elite fighter. If he is back to his old self then he fits right in at 168. He'd beat a few and lose to a few but he's tough for anyone in the divison including Ward, Bute, and Direll. If he is on the slide then he'll become a big name win on the resumes of some of the elite and even some of the second tier guys at 168 like Bika and Andrade. 168 is a tough division and I'm looking foward to seeing Pavlik match up with some of those guys.
One of the unexpected consequences of the S-6 is that the contestants are now ridiculously over rated. They did not get better just because they joined a tournament along with Allen Green! Froch came within 14 seconds of losing to Jermain Taylor. At middleweight Pavlik knocked JT out in the the 7th. At super middleweight Pavlik scored a unanimous decision over JT. Hopkins tried to win a decision over JT and failed twice. Winky only managed a draw. An all time great failed, and a future hall of fame inductee failed. Pavlik succeeded. Prior to the start of the S-6 Ward's best win was a boring decision over a worn out Edison Miranda. Pavlik left peak Miranda tore up from the floor up. Dirrell's best pre-tournament win was Victor Oganov. Zuniga knocked Oganov out back when Oganov was 25-0 with 25 KO's. We all know what Pavlik did to Zuniga. Bute's best win to date is Andrade. Pavlik does absolutely everything better than Andrade does. I'm puzzled by the fact that most people claim Pavlik was a great win for Martinez, but when we talk about Kelly in any other context he's a 3rd tier jobber. You can't have it both ways. Either Pavlik is one hell of a boxer, or Martinez got dropped by a 3rd tier jobber, and lost 5 rounds along the way, Which is it? Your schizophrenia is driving me nuts!
Ummm.........no. Just no. The Pavlik that marched to the 160lbs title was infinitely more impressive than any incarnation of Froch. Period.
The old "he beats him because he's already beaten the guy he lost to" theory,is absolute crap.If it holds any truth then why did AA beat the head off JT,Froch "apparently" was about to lose to JT,and yet Froch didn't break sweat giving AA a beating and one sided boxing lesson ??? Martinez is a welter/light middleweight,not only was he too quick and too slippery for Pavlik,he was also hurting him and bust him up.
If Pavlik is still able to perform near his best then he is being severely underrated here. Pavlik, at his best, is on par with almost anyone in the division. The only person I'd clearly put above Pavlik is Ward, the rest of the top fighters are even fights with Pavlik. If Pavlik is done as a top fighter than he can forget beating the top guys and would be on par with the next level of guys like Bika and Andrade, at best. A lot of questions on Pavlik and we might see what he has left next week.
yes he can; Ward and Bute give him the most trouble with their constant movement, they are 60%-40% against Pavlik ; the rest 50%-50%. He should leave Martinez behind (bad history for lineal MW: Taylor-Hopkins 2-0; Pavlik-Taylor 2-0; Martinez-Pavlik 1-0 ,so.. he should break the pattern) and for now, deal with Lopez; 168 is a deep divison, Pavlik is a name, opportunities will come for him; look at AA, he got in the super6 from 160 with a weak resume and was hyped as a superstar.